Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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470
FXUS63 KMKX 211115
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
615 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...

Rain continues to steadily march north into the area this morning.
Rain and a few thunderstorms will persist across the region for
most of the day today.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Flight conditions will rapidly deteriorate this morning as rain
and low ceilings move into the region. For KMKE and KENW, fog is
expected to develop along Lake Michigan, with easterly winds
pushing that fog inland far enough to affect the terminals.
Elsewhere, occasional fog/mist is expected, but it should not be
as dense as near the lake.

Showers will become less numerous later this evening, but low
clouds will persist overnight, along with some fog. Conditions
should finally start to improve after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Showers and a few thunderstorms are pushing north toward the
region early this morning, on the nose of a weak low level jet and
ahead of an approaching mid level trough. This activity should
gradually expand in coverage as it overspreads the area this
morning. Rain will continue through the day today, with a few
thunderstorms also possible, mainly south of I-94. Some patchy fog
is also possible near Lake Michigan, where easterly winds may
bring some fog onshore from the lake.

Temperatures today will be on the cool side, with most locations
only reaching the upper 50s to near 60. For those counties
bordering the lake, the onshore flow will keep readings in the
low 50s.

Showers should become more isolated in nature tonight, with clouds likely
sticking around into Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 40s east to low 50s west. Patchy fog will also be possible.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Could see a little drizzle or some sprinkles Tuesday morning as
the trough exits. Clouds will hang on during the morning, with
some sunshine possible by mid to late afternoon. High temperatures
will climb back to around normal values, except for cooler
conditions near Lake Michigan.

It should be mainly dry Wedensday, though could see an isolated
shower/storm in the west in the afternoon as a wave pushes into
the area. Above normal temps will return on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A warm and moist airmass will be in place late week into the
weekend under southerly low level flow between departing high
pressure and approaching low pressure. Could see multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday until the
low and cold front finally clear the area Saturday night.
Confidence is high in a wet pattern, but obviously less confidence
in the timing of individual rounds.

Above normal temperatures will continue for this period. Exact
high temps will depend on the timing of precipitation and the
possibility of clouds/rain during the day. Overall though, this
has the potential to be the warmest and most humid airmass of the
season thus far.

&&

MARINE...

East winds are expected across the nearshore waters today and
tonight. This will result in 2-3 foot waves in most locations.
Some fog may also be possible today and tonight, and conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential for a marine dense fog
advisory.

Conditions should begin to improve on Tuesday as winds become
northwesterly. Light winds will continue into at least lake week,
with little wave action expected. Conditions generally look quiet
until late in the week or the weekend, when thunderstorms will
again be possible.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...99



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