Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 222328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
728 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Arkansas with
another over eastern Saskatchewan with a shortwave ridge over the
upper Great Lakes. The ridge moves into the lower Great Lakes while
both closed lows stay well to the north and south of the area. This
means quiet and mild weather will continue this forecast period.
Lowered dew points a bit based on persistently dry airmass and
models were way too high on their sfc dew points. These were the
only major changes made to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

We will be moving back into a more active and seasonable spring-time
pattern next week as a lead shortwave digs southeast across the
region early in the week, with embedded shortwaves progged to dig
across the region embedded within persistent northwest flow. The
main forecast changes were mainly in regards to precipitation, with
showers looking less likely on Tuesday along the first cold front.
The next best chance for precipitation is still progged to arrive on
Thursday/Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a roller
coaster throughout the week, but should remain more seasonable.

Tuesday through Wednesday: A cold front will push southeast across
Upper Michigan during the day on Tuesday. Model trends continue to
diminish chances for precipitation along this front, which makes
sense given the amount of dry air in place ahead of this front
across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, and a system
well to our south progged to limit moisture return this far north.
Behind the front, a noticeable cool down is in store, especially
compared to the above normal temperatures as of late, along with
breezy north-northwest winds. The coldest temperatures on Tuesday
are expected across the far west, where the cold front will push
through first. Tuesday night through Wednesday, dry weather will
prevail with seasonable temperatures returning.

Thursday through Friday: Temperatures will rebound nicely on
Thursday ahead of another front progged to slide across the region
late in the day. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the
timing of this frontal passage, and the resulting chance for
precipitation and precipitation type. We could see light
accumulations of rain, and even some very light snow especially any
lingering precipitation behind the front before the cloud ice
diminished or further east where the front isn`t progged to arrive
until Thursday night. With the precipitation tied to the surface
front, expect this band of precipitation to remain progressive and
only only last for about a 3 to 4 hour time period at most. By
Friday morning, lingering precipitation across the south central and
east will continue to diminish. Increasing cold air advection
working in concert with lake effect clouds behind the front will
allow for a much chillier day on Friday, with highs likely only
climbing into the 40s. Across the south central where downsloping
northerly winds will help erode any lingering cloud cover and
enhance warming locally, temperatures could return to the lower 50s.

Next Weekend: We will remain around the inflection point between
ridging developing across the northern Plains and troughing across
the northeast. The resulting northwest flow will allow for any
lingering shortwaves up in Canada to dig south across the region,
but right now chance for precipitation look very limited. As the
warmer air aloft gradually slides eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes towards the end of the weekend, temperatures will gradually
warm back up into the mid to upper 50s by Sunday. Closer to the
Great Lakes, temperatures will likely remain in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

As a low pressure system crosses the Mid-Mississippi Valley
tonight into tomorrow, mid-level ridging will lose some of its
grip over the northern Great Lakes region, allowing for
prevailing SW winds to increase. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue through this TAF period at all three terminals.


.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 241 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

Winds will remain less than 15 knots through most of the period. The
main exception will be later Tue into Tue night when northwest winds
increase to over 20 knots. Another period of strong wind will arrive
late Thu into Thu night with winds to around 30 knots in the wake of
a cold front moving across Lake Superior.

Issued at 241 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

Snowpack continues to melt steadily since late last week. Though the
melt so far has been slow for most areas, expect it to increase
through Tuesday as daytime highs reach the 60s inland. However, dry
airmass with sub freezing dwpnts should result in a slower melting
of snow than would otherwise occur with these temps. Fortunately,
still looks like we will avoid any bigger precipitation events the
next week which would only increase runoff and flooding potential.
Cool down at the end of the week should really slow down the melt.
Overall, observed and forecast conditions don`t suggest any
significant concerns with the snow melt for the next week. While
melting will likely be relatively controlled given the forecast,
certainly could still see minor flooding at some point down the road
on the usual rivers that experience spring flooding.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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