Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 201012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
812 PM ChST Fri Apr 20 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...East to northeast trade-winds, a few clouds and
showers prevail across the Marianas this afternoon.


Satellite imagery showed a small patch of clouds and showers to the
east of the Marianas this afternoon. Precipitable Water imagery also
showed the slight increase in moisture associated with this area.
Models also depict this weak disturbance and so added mostly cloudy
to the forecast beginning after midnight tonight. These clouds will
linger through the morning on Saturday with partly cloudy skies
returning by the afternoon. Only isolated showers are expected with
this disturbance.

While there may be small patches of showers at times the models keep
the weather relatively dry through the first half of the coming week
with only partly cloudy skies and isolated showers expected. A
surface trough may bring an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms by mid-week next week.


Observations from all the buoys this afternoon show a east trade-wind
swell and sea heights between 6 to 8 feet. Seas will decrease
slightly by tomorrow. East winds of of between 10 and 20 knots will
persist through the weekend decreasing slightly Monday.

The east swell will be high enough to produce surf of 7 to 9 feet on
east facing reefs. Surf this high will produce a high rip current
risk. These conditions will persist through Saturday.


.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A broad circulation (Invest 92W) is SE of Kosrae near 4N164E with a
surface trough northeastward across the Marshall Islands to beyond
the Date Line at 10N. A large area of showers is over Kosrae State
and the Marshall Islands. Heavy rainfall is likely in many of these
showers. The circulation has been nearly stationary and will be the
main weather concern in the coming days. At this time, models
indicate the circulation and surface trough will edge westward so
that showery weather should move over Pohnpei State by Saturday, and
across Chuuk State over the weekend. Improving weather is expected
to gradually arrive from the east by next week.

Residual trade-wind swell and wind waves will maintain hazardous
surf at Kosrae tonight, and may still be local inundation at Majuro
Atoll. Majuro/Kalo Buoy shows combined seas ranging from 6 to 8 feet
this afternoon.


.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
A few trade-wind showers east of Yap are moving west, otherwise dry
weather prevails over far western Micronesia. Pleasant weather will
prevail for Yap and Koror into early next week. Models indicate the
near-equatorial trough currently near 3-4N could edge northward and
some moisture arriving from the east should increase chances for
showers over far Western Micronesia next week.


GU...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.


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