391
FXUS64 KSHV 100330
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1030 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cleared many of our Counties and Parishes from SVR Watches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

To cancel Counties in SE OK, NE TX and SW AR. Added our 4
remaining Parishes to SVR Watch #224 until midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Radar is finally showing most of the severe thunderstorms are
shifting out of our cwa. All that remains of SVR Watch #224 are a
handful of our Parishes from Natchitoches and points east and will
end closer to midnight as planned. No other changes aside from
removing some maybe severe wording. Radar mosaics still showing
shower activity north of our I-30 corridor, but overall coverage
has diminished greatly over the region during the last hour. /24/


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief break in active weather will come to an end as the next
workweek begins across the Four State Region. This is due to a
quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower
troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and
the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will arrive
to instigate widespread convection as early as late Sunday into
early Monday, while the next disturbance in the parade will arrive
as early as Wednesday to keep precipitation chances going through
most of the rest of the week. Day 1-7 QPF values of widespread 3+
inch totals are expected with isolated higher amounts possible as
a result. Otherwise, temperature maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s
will gradually return above normal (maximums approaching 90 once
again) after the middle of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered strong to severe convection will remain possible across
much of the ArkLaTex through 10/05z. All TAF sites will be
affected, but the risk of thunderstorms should generally begin to
diminish from northwest to southeast beginning around 10/03z. A
few scattered showers will remain possible through the overnight
hours, but all rain chances should end before daybreak Friday
morning. Outside of convective effects, VFR flight conditions
should generally prevail with the exception of possibly a brief
period of MVFR ceilings at KLFK. However, VFR conditions with only
some high cirrus clouds are expected after 10/13z across the
region.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  84  62  82 /  50   0   0   0
MLU  66  83  59  82 /  70   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  62  83  58  83 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  56  81 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  65  83  61  80 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  65  83  61  81 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  67  85  64  82 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09