Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
1123 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Above normal flood potential for the Adirondacks; elsewhere flood
potential is near normal...

Lingering snowpack in the Adirondacks and Southern Greens will
continue to melt through the next week, causing rises on rivers.
Forecast temperature and precipitation suggest some rivers will
approach action stage but only a few points may see minor flooding.

This is the ninth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 27th to May
10th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow depths across Eastern New York and Western New England have
continued to diminish since the last outlook.

Snow depths in the western Adirondacks range from a trace to 6
inches across lower elevations, with 6 to 12 inches at elevations
above 1500 feet. Snow water equivalents range from up to an inch in
lower elevations and 3 to 6 inches in the high peaks.

The southern Green mountains are carrying from nil to 3 inches of
snow depth, with 6 to 10 inches across higher terrain. Snow water
equivalents ranged from nil to half an inch at lower elevations and
from 2 to 4 inches in higher terrain.

Elsewhere across the outlook area, any snow that remains at higher
elevations is hydrologically insignificant. The ground is bare
throughout the remainder of the outlook area.

....RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

Flooding due to river ice is no longer a concern for the season.

...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York
are near normal. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is currently
designated near normal across the outlook area, with the exception
of an "unusual moist spell" designation for the western climate
division in Vermont.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoirs are near normal for this time of year; the system
as a whole is at 99.3 percent of capacity, which is 1.1 percent
above normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoirs continue to
fill with snowmelt, however due to below normal spring temperatures,
these rises are somewhat later than normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks for May 2-6 and 4-10
respectively both call for above normal precipitation. The
temperature outlook transitions from high chances of above normal in
the 6 to 10 day range down to near normal in the 8 to 14 day range.

...SUMMARY...

Several bouts of rain in the near term followed by much warmer
temperatures coupled with dry conditions should continue the
relatively orderly snowmelt through the first week of the outlook
period. A few points may reach minor flood stage but widespread
significant flooding from snowmelt and/or rainfall is not
anticipated. Given the above normal snowpack weve been carrying,
this is just about the best case scenario for melt in terms of flood
impacts.

Given that the remainder of hydrologically significant snow should
melt over the outlook period, this will be the final outlook for
this winter-spring flood season. It is important to remember that
heavy rain can cause flooding at any time of year. Extended
hydrologic information is always included in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook when necessary at

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can always be found on
our web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can always be found at
www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

$$

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