Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 250819
SPC AC 250817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

Overall severe storm potential will remain low through at least
Sunday (day 5). However, the severe threat is expected to increase
over a portion of the central and southern Plains early next week,
but predictability remains low at that time frame. Model consensus
is that a synoptic upper trough will dominate the eastern U.S.
through day 4 (Saturday) before moving off the eastern seaboard
Sunday (day 5). Moisture return inland will remain limited through
day 5 with a large area of continental-polar high pressure moving
through the eastern states, maintaining offshore flow and dry
trajectories over the Gulf. Richer low-level moisture will begin
advecting farther into the Plains by day 6 (Monday) as the Gulf
boundary layer recovers and winds return to southerly. However, the
spread in upper pattern among ensemble members increases
substantially beyond day 5, which along with limited run-to run
consistency of deterministic models suggest low predictability.

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