Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 072002
SWODY1
SPC AC 072000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight across portions of east Texas.

Low-level moistening has continued across southern Texas with
dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Shallow convection is streaming in
off the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become deeper later this
evening as temperatures cool aloft. Shear should be sufficient for a
few organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado.

..Bentley.. 02/07/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/

...East Texas...
Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are
expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX
through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front
migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest
moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading
across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift
northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a
surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a
migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an
approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor
imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24
hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent
over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread
stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much
of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most
likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across
the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the
higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12
UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities;
however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period
will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust,
organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

$$


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