240
ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading
portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal
southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe
weather appears negligible.

...01Z Update...

...Atlantic Seaboard...
Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow
pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream.
Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England
coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is
very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance
suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front
clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight.

...Lower Great Lakes...
Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating
northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output
indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped
convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath
cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow.  It appears that this
will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late
this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight.
However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing
lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent).

..Kerr.. 12/12/2024

$$