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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
000
FGUS73 KARX 302020
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
216 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
lower than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 01/30/2023 - 04/30/2023
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 36 20 13 8 5 <5
Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 88 51 26 17 9 7
Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 8 7 5 6 <5 <5
MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 43 23 17 9 5 6
Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 54 34 11 8 5 5
Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 56 40 31 18 10 8
Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 53 32 19 10 5 6
La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 44 25 17 9 5 7
La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 57 43 35 21 6 8
Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 69 46 16 9 5 7
Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : 12 9 5 7 <5 <5
Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 32 16 9 8 <5 <5
McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 71 48 34 26 9 9
Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 53 41 19 13 6 6
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 6 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Root River
Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 10 19 6 7 <5 6
:Turtle Creek
Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 22 16 12 9 7 <5
:Turkey River
Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 28 52 8 18 <5 <5
Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 22 42 15 24 <5 15
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 13 22 <5 6 <5 <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 9 12 <5 5 <5 <5
:Black River
Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 57 54 38 26 8 9
Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 56 50 45 34 <5 <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 24 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 13 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 45 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 16 18 7 7 <5 <5
:Yellow River
Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 71 74 42 43 17 17
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 01/30/2023 - 04/30/2023
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 12.8 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.6 18.3 20.2
Wabasha 11.5 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.1 15.6 17.6
Alma Dam 4 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.6 15.4 17.4
MN City Dam 5 656.4 657.2 658.4 659.7 661.1 663.5 665.5
Winona Dam 5A 651.9 652.8 654.1 655.6 657.0 659.3 661.3
Winona 10.4 11.3 12.6 14.0 15.5 18.0 19.5
Trempealeau 644.4 645.2 646.2 647.2 648.5 650.0 651.5
La Crescent 638.3 638.9 639.8 640.8 642.1 644.0 645.4
La Crosse 10.2 10.7 11.6 12.5 13.6 15.2 16.3
Genoa 629.5 629.9 630.8 631.6 633.0 634.8 636.4
Lansing 11.2 11.5 12.4 13.8 15.4 17.4 19.8
Lynxville 621.1 621.5 622.7 624.0 625.6 627.8 630.4
McGregor 13.3 14.1 15.4 17.2 19.7 21.5 25.3
Guttenberg 12.5 13.0 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.8 22.2
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 8.4 9.2 10.1 11.2 12.9 14.7 19.7
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 8.1 14.4
:Root River
Houston 5.9 6.2 7.2 7.7 8.9 11.5 13.2
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.6 5.1 7.6 8.5
:Cedar River
Lansing 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.4 15.9 16.5 18.5
Austin 6.9 7.2 9.0 10.2 11.4 13.7 16.8
Charles City 5.2 5.4 6.5 8.0 9.9 12.0 17.2
:Turtle Creek
Austin 5.7 6.4 7.6 8.9 10.2 12.9 14.5
:Turkey River
Elkader 7.8 8.2 9.0 10.2 12.5 15.7 17.8
Garber 9.2 10.1 11.5 13.0 16.3 21.6 22.9
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.7 7.7 8.4
Dorchester 8.9 9.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 15.0 16.3
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 4.6 4.9 5.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.8
Dodge 7.5 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.5 10.3 10.8
:Black River
Neillsville 8.3 8.9 9.8 11.6 14.0 15.5 16.2
Black River Falls 43.1 43.3 44.4 49.1 52.5 54.4 57.0
Galesville 9.5 9.9 10.8 12.6 13.5 14.0 14.4
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 5.2 5.5 6.3 7.2 8.3 9.9 10.3
Viola 9.7 9.8 10.4 11.3 12.2 13.6 14.1
Readstown 6.9 7.5 8.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 11.9
Soldiers Grove 8.2 8.9 9.8 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.3
Gays Mills 9.0 9.8 11.1 12.8 13.3 13.8 13.9
Steuben 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.3 11.1 11.7 11.8
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 4.1 4.6 6.2 7.4 8.0 9.6 10.3
:Yellow River
Necedah 13.1 13.5 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.0
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 01/30/2023 - 04/30/2023
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7
Wabasha 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7
Alma Dam 4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0
MN City Dam 5 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0
Winona Dam 5A 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5
Winona 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Trempealeau 639.3 639.3 639.3 639.3 639.3 639.2 639.2
La Crescent 631.3 631.3 631.3 631.3 631.2 631.2 631.2
La Crosse 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
Genoa 620.6 620.6 620.6 620.6 620.6 620.5 620.5
Lansing 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
Lynxville 612.2 612.2 612.2 612.1 612.0 611.9 611.9
McGregor 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0
Guttenberg 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
:Root River
Houston 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Cedar River
Lansing 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
Austin 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Charles City 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:Turtle Creek
Austin 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
:Turkey River
Elkader 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
Garber 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Dorchester 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0
Dodge 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9
:Black River
Neillsville 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Black River Falls 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8
Galesville 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
Viola 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1
Readstown 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
Soldiers Grove 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7
Gays Mills 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Steuben 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8
:Yellow River
Necedah 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
All of this information is also available in graphical format
on the internet at:
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse
The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 9th.
$$
JAW
- National Weather Service
- La Crosse, WI Weather Forecast Office
- N2788 County Road FA
- LaCrosse, WI 54601
- 608-784-7294
- Page Author: ARX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-arx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 6th, 2022 18:00 UTC