202
FXUS63 KDDC 070926
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway
  283 This Afternoon

- A dry weather pattern will persist for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

No precipitation is expected for the rest of the week. There
will be a couple of fronts that shift wind directions  the
first of which will be Tonight which will also bring in a canopy
of mid to high level cloudiness. North winds behind the
trough/front will be quite light for western KS normals, and
look to average about 10-13 mph through the overnight. The NBM
doesnt venture too far from the previous nights lows averaging
upper 40s near Medicine Lodge and lower 40s at Syracuse. This
seem reasonable as not a lot differential temperature advection
was associated with this last airmass change.

Tuesday nights front will impact the highs on Wednesday.
Pleasant 70s area wide are the statistical consensus for
afternoon highs among the models. Some of the MOS or climate
influenced output favor the warmer solutions, but the models
themselves area pointing to the slightly cooler outcome. Tuesday
night and Wednesday mornings temperatures look to be repeat of
the previous couple of nights, in the upper 40s/low 50s
southeast to low 40s in the western Ark valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A sharply positively tilted upper trough becomes oriented from
the western Great Lakes across the Nebraska and Kansas into the
Great Basin by Thursday. With additional push of cooler
northern High Plains air southward, frontogenesis forced pockets
of shower and storms are possible in the region, but look to
favor areas north of western KS and west to near the front
range. Then heading into the weekend, deterministic models of
the main 3 global spectral set are very similar in the mass
fields, with a split flow subtropical jet across the sun belt,
and a sharp northern Plains trough targeting the Great Lakes.
Any kind of front or trough might set off diurnal storms but
widespread severe events area not likely given the rich dew
point air is relegated to to the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi valley. Hence low/slight chances for showers or
thunderstorms (10-20%) are peppered through the weekend.

The week 2 outlook (day 8-14 by Climate Prediction Center) does
lean wet (33-40% chance of wetter than normal conditions), with
about a 40-50 percent chance for above normal temps in the same
period (May 14-20) .

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Surface winds will gradually increase after sunrise, to the 20
to 26 knot range  with strongest gusts around GCK near 35
knots. The area is behind an exiting weather system/cold front
that has ushered in drier air and as a result there wont be any
impacts form ceilings or surface visibility restrictions  at
least during the remainder of these TAFs. Some clouds coming
back into the picture toward the end of the TAF should not
impact aviation as a weak front comes in late tonight -  all
indications suggest this will be VFR cloud cover based on the
forecast sounding temperatures  dew point depression traces.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Very dry conditions both This afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon. The difference is Today will be quite windy,
resulting in the conditions exceeding the red flag criteria
across the western half of the forecast area (roughly everywhere
west of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge and Ashland, all three
included. The expected much weaker winds on Wednesday afternoon
precludes the need for another warning, however, the conditions
are in the elevated category, meaning open fires can still
quickly escape and area very difficult to control.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99