Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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804 FXUS63 KDVN 100610 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 110 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will remain possible through much of tonight. - Strong gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Friday night. - Warm next week with increasing chances of shower and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from Colorado into the Great Lakes and sits across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois early this afternoon. There are widespread to scattered rain showers across the area early this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have remained to the northwest of the area. Temperatures across the area are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The elongated trough is forecast to sink south of the area tonight bring rain to an end from north to south between 7 PM and 1 AM. Im the wake of this storm system, the flow aloft will become northwesterly with shortwave ridging building into the area Thursday night into Friday morning. This will bring quiet weather to the area during that period. The only fly in the ointment is that models do show lots of low level moisture in the area. The question is will there be enough for patchy fog or maybe light drizzle across the area. This will be dependent on how much clearing occurs tonight. Low temperatures on Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 40s across the area. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Friday night: Northwest flow aloft across the area as a strong shortwave troughs digs from the Upper Midwest into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This will also bring a cold front across the area Friday night. Model soundings ahead of this wave show limited instability with inverted V forecast soundings. Models show a line of scattered line of showers and storms developing to our northwest and giving southeastward across the area Friday night. Inverted V soundings coupled with less moisture across the area indicate that gusty winds will be the main threat. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Saturday: A very pleasant day is in store weak high pressure building into the area. Highs will be around 70. Sunday through Wednesday: Active period again with periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms as another deep trough comes out of the Rockies and into the middle of the country. However, way too early to determine severe threats or rainfall amounts. Highs will be well into the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Scattered slow moving showers are expected overnight, mainly at DBQ and BRL, as an upper low drifts across the area. This will lead to periods of MVFR ceilings into Friday morning. A return to VFR is expected mid to late Friday AM with winds increasing out of the west. A cold front may bring another round of scattered showers and storms late Friday evening/Friday night; held off on mentioning in the TAFs due to low confidence on coverage. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 846 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Changes... The flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt has been changed to a flood warning. Discussion: The Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers continue to rise as a result of the rainfall over the past 30 hours. The forecast for De Witt has not changed much over the past 24 hours, thus confidence has increased that it will reach flood stage within the next 24 hours. The overall situation with the Cedar and Iowa Rivers is more uncertain. While there is a better accounting of the overall runoff compared to 24 hours ago, the forecast for Marengo on the Iowa river is just barely above flood stage. Since the flood crest will gradually attenuate due to gravity as it moves downstream, there is a 30 to 40 percent chance that the crest at Marengo may occur just below flood stage. On the Cedar River near Conesville the flood crest will also attenuate as it moves downstream. However, the crest is further above flood stage which means there is a 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage. Rainfall over the next 72 hours and where it occurs will be the deciding factor as to whether or not the Cedar and Iowa Rivers will reach flood stage near Conesville and at Marengo respectively. If the rainfall is lighter than expected then river forecasts may be lowered. However, if rainfall is heavier than expected then river forecasts may be raised. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Uttech HYDROLOGY...8