Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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323 ACUS01 KWNS 121247 SWODY1 SPC AC 121246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 $$