Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Only minor changes to sky and near term hourly variables made with
this update. The forecast appears to be on track. Some of the
hi-res models try to form fog in the snow covered area near
Griggs/Steele/Traill...but NAM/GFS BUFKIT tool shows too much
mixing will exist (according to nearby sites FAR/GFK/DVL/GWR).


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Ridging still dominates upper level pattern over our CWA, while
surface high pressure has slowly shifted eastward. This has kept
subsident/dry conditions in place, and continues to support mild
temperatures across our CWA. Low level southerly flow will continue
to increase through tomorrow WAA and further moderation of air mass
in place. Cloud cover has played a small role in delaying the
warm up today, but most locations have still warmed into the 50s
(a few spots near 60F), so we are pretty much on pace. Cloud
cover could be a concern again for Saturday, but air mass will be
even warmer, so we should be able to reach the upper 50s/lower 60s
(maybe a little warmer than that). Relative humidity has been
dropping near or below RFW criteria at a few locations in
northwest MN, but weak surface gradient is keeping winds below
criteria through Saturday afternoon where lower RH occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A quiet weather pattern is still expected through most of the
forecast period. Sun will be pcpn free with highs in the 60s.
Pressure gradient combined with good mixing within SW wind boundary
layer to induce higher wind speeds closer to 20 kts with some gusts
toward 30. Advancing cold front still expected to wash out over the
forecast area at night. 500mb flow brings a strengthening shortwave
across the Northern Rockies into the Plains Mon night/Tue. With it
clouds and cooler temps along with some rain chances particularly
over southern sections. By Tue high temps will throttle back about 5
to 10 degrees.  EC and GEFS ensembles/plume means show that the most
likely rainfall amounts across the FA range from two to four tenths
from north to south, respectively. Drier and milder Wed with short
wave ridging followed by fast moving trough on Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR Conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hrs.




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