371
FXUS63 KFGF 152330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across
  much of the area, with a low chance for a few stronger storms
  in west central Minnesota.

- Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon have a chance to be strong
  to severe. The probability for widespread severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- Active pattern continues into the weekend and next week, with
  several more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain showers continue to slowly move east this evening. Should
see some clearing into tonight, but I`d say we needed the slow,
steady rainfall for the drought. Forecast remains on track
otherwise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A quick moving ridge will provide a brief lull in the
rain but our precipitation chances continue Thursday evening. The
probability for 0.10 inches for Thursday is trending as 30 percent
or less with the higher probs located north of Highway 2. If we get
a break in the clouds tomorrow morning there should be enough
daytime heating for some instability to develop and produce your
garden variety thunderstorms in the late afternoon to early evening.
This also aligns with the Storm Prediction Center`s general
thunderstorm category for our forecast area.

Friday looks to be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with highs
currently forecast to be from 77 to 85 degrees. Surface dewpoints
are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s, while precipitable water
values top out over 1 inch. This will set the stage for a
potentially active day, but the exact surface details have yet to be
ironed out. At this point, the surface low at 12z Friday should be
over southwest Saskatchewan. This puts the FA in the warm sector,
allowing for the warm day mentioned above. With the 500/700mb lows
over central Alberta/central Saskatchewan, this frontal boundary
will not move eastward too fast. Therefore, by 00z Saturday, the
surface low or cold front will push through western North Dakota and
be somewhere close to central North Dakota. Correspondingly, a weak
piece of 700mb energy should rotate around the parent low, ejecting
out and helping to push the cold front eastward.

Getting into Friday night, ensembles show the potential for a low
level jet, elevated instability, and 850mb warm advection. The best
focus area for this appears to be across southern Manitoba and
western Ontario, but this could always change. This setup seems to
favor convection developing west of the FA on Friday, shifting into
northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota Friday night. So
the best chances for precipitation in this FA look to be Friday
night. Severe chances are there, but are on the low probability side
so far. For improving confidence, would like to see it get into the
CAM range. A cold front passes through Saturday morning, with the
main impact thereafter being gusty west winds for the rest of
Saturday. A zonal type pattern continues for the remainder of the
long term, with the periodic waves (precipitation chances)
continuing throughout. With precipitation chances and clouds,
temperatures will remain on the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

MVFR will be the prevailing condition into Friday. Some sites
could dip into IFR with sporadic lower ceilings, but confidence
is not high enough in where this will occur to be certain in the
TAFs. RA will continue to progress eastward, mainly affecting
the MN TAF sites into tomorrow. Winds will calm and turn VRB
this evening from west to east, before becoming steady out of
the NW and transitioning to West and SW Friday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...Godon/MM
AVIATION...AH