Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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600 FXUS63 KGID 041108 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 608 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected this weekend with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s this morning and Sunday morning. - Another strong weather system will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to the area Monday-Monday night. During the mid-afternoon to late evening hours, there will be the potential for severe storms...very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. - Spotty low chances (20-30%) for precipitation continue in the forecast from Tuesday evening on through the work week, but confidence remains low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 This weekend... Lingering showers are expected to depart the area to the east before sunrise today. At the surface, high pressure is moving into the central and northern Plains this morning with an area of low pressure over the Pacific coast. The surface ridge will be present through the weekend, while the surface low and associated cold front will move over the Rockies by Sunday afternoon. Aloft at 500 mb, an upper trough with continue across the Plains today before an upper ridge moves over the area tonight and Sunday. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid-60s and just a bit warmer Sunday (in the mid- to upper 60s). Low temperatures will fall quite a bit under the ridge. Morning lows this morning and Sunday morning will be in the 30s and 40s. There may even be some patchy frost north and west of the tri-cities Sunday morning, but too isolated for any formal product at this point. Sunday night through Monday night... By Sunday night, the low pressure to our west will intensify, dropping a potent cold front south across the Rockies and southwestern United States. This will rotate northeast into the central Plains Monday, enhancing the mid-level jet as it pushes against a strong ridge over the Great Lakes. Models indicate thunderstorms potentially initiating over a dryline that is progged over central NE/KS Monday afternoon. With high CAPE values (2000+ J/kg, especially over the southern half of the forecast area as well as along the dryline) and very strong deep layer shear, severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Monday evening. There is still a question as to how far east will the dryline manage to be before storms initiate, whether it is further west in our CWA or farther east (around Highway 281). Wherever it sets up, the expectation is for very large hail (possibly 2 inches in diameter or larger) and strong wind gusts along and east of the dryline, and with higher values of SRH in the model guidance, a few tornadoes may be possible as well. Storms will potentially start out as supercells before developing into a linear system later in the event. Most model guidance has these storms pushing east of the forecast area by shortly after midnight Monday night, but the ECMWF has them linger into the early morning hours Tuesday. Monday will definitely be a day to keep both eyes on the weather and to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Tuesday and on... Tuesday through Friday, the forecast remains overall dry, but there are a few small chances (20-30%) of precipitation. Behind the trough Monday, low pressure will rotate northward into Montana and the Dakotas Tuesday and Wednesday, with another trough impacting the central Plains mid- to late week, although the exact placement of the low and associated trough remains uncertain. Pretty sure the area (or at least some portions of it) will see some precipitation during this period but uncertainty as to when remains high. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The KEAR AWOS is currently out of service due to recent storms, so the KEAR TAF is AMD NOT SKED until the AWOS comes back online. MVFR ceilings are expected to scatter out by 04/15Z, after which VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Expect a few cirrus clouds to linger through the morning with clear skies afterward. Winds will be out of the north gusting to 20-25 kts this morning at the TAF sites. Gusts will diminish this afternoon with sustained winds still at around 15 kts, becoming light and northeasterly this evening, then southeasterly shortly after midnight tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford