205
FXUS63 KGLD 140818
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
218 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canada may impact the Tri-State area through
  Tuesday. Those with respiratory concerns are encouraged to
  keep a watchful eye on air quality levels.

- Summer-like temperatures are expected Tuesday, with widespread
  80s expected.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Tuesday/Wednesday and again Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, an upper trough will continue
to move to the east, with the western part of the Tri-State area
coming under northerly flow. Expected afternoon high
temperatures will be primarily in the 70s. Visible satellite
imagery shows a few cumulus clouds moving across the region.
There is a small, non-zero chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm popping up this afternoon in the eastern part of
the area. Northerly winds have been transporting smoke from
fires in Canada into the region. Those with respiratory concerns
will want to be mindful of conditions over the next day and a
half as the HRRR shows the potential of smoke staying in the
region.

Tuesday, northwesterly to westerly flow will be set up over the
region. Expected high temperatures will be reminiscent of early
summer, reaching the low to mid-80s across most areas. At least
for the morning hours, dry conditions are expected. There will
also be a chance of some smoke from Canada impacting the area.
Heading into the afternoon, an upper trough drops south into
northern Utah and Colorado. There will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon. At this point in
time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday evening, a cold front is expected to move into the
region. This will bring in some cooler air to the region. This
should also help clear out some of the smoke.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Will start the period warm and dry under shortwave ridging on
Friday. Shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies on
Saturday and into the northern plains, potentially sending a
cold front down the plains and into the area. However, models in
poor agreement on whether or not that will happen. There is
some weak instability for any potential front to work with but
overall shear is also rather weak. So, at worst might see a few
isolated storms along any potential frontal boundary Saturday
afternoon/evening.

For Sunday and Monday, will start a prolonged period of
southwest flow ahead of a deep trough which will be slow to
move out of the southwest/Four Corners region. Occasional
shortwave energy will be ejected from the trough axis and into
the central plains providing synoptic scale lift for convection.
Deep layer shear will be around 50 kts both days. Instability
is forecast to be rather limited on Sunday which may negate any
severe weather chances, but potentially better on Monday with a
dry line and front at the surface and well-defined upper wave.
However, confidence at seven days out in those kind of details
remains low.

Temperatures through the long term period change very little,
with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Sub-VFR conditions are possible in association with scattered
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon and evening (~22-03Z). Guidance
suggests a relatively greater potential for convection at the
GLD terminal (compared to MCK), though.. confidence in
convective coverage and location is below average. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds will prevail overnight.. shifting to the S
and increasing to 10-15 knots late Tuesday morning. At GLD,
south winds will weaken and become variable during the
afternoon. At MCK, a southerly breeze may persist through the
majority of the afternoon.. becoming variable AOA sunset Tuesday
evening. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of
any showers/storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV