868
FXUS64 KLCH 071747
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1247 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another very warm and muggy day across the forecast area. PWAT
value on the 07/12z upper air sounding from KLCH was near 1.75
inches. There was some dry air in the mid levels, so this will
likely preclude any widespread shower activity today. Still, would
not be surprised to see a few small light showers develop with
daytime heating like the CAMs are showing. Otherwise, forecast is
on track.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Continued elevated winds have kept clouds off the ground this
morning, but in a pretty solid low level ceiling. The combination
of tropical winds and cloud cover is yielding very warm minimum
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this morning more reminiscent
of August than early May. Both the breezy winds and cloud cover
should prevail through most of the day. CAMS guidance has been
overly enthusiastic about precip development through nearly the
entire day one period and these were heavily discounted as
unrepresentative. A weak boundary will push through parts of the
ArkLaTex region through the day so not completely ruling out a
stray shower or thunderstorm across parts of central Louisiana
this afternoon in response to that, but wasn`t confident enough in
that to even include isolated PoPs at this time.

No significant changes to the pattern expected through Wednesday
as consistent west southwesterly flow aloft will keep the mid and
upper levels dry enough to prevent precipitation. The low
responsible for the ongoing severe weather outbreak across the
plains will continue to work east, but keep the pressure gradient
tight enough locally to keep winds between 10 and 15 knots through
Wednesday night.

A late season cold front will swing quickly through the area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night initializing scattered
convection as it does so. Owing primarily to the saturated ground,
WPC has highlighted areas away from the coast in a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall. That said, forecast QPF accumulation is
pretty unimpressive and this event does not look to pose a
significant flash flood concern.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Seasonable and fair weather can be expected for most of the long
term. As the period kicks off on Friday, the cold front will be off
to our east with an area of high pressure building into the Plains.
Cooler and drier air will move in, with near and slightly below
normal climatological temperatures. (MaxTs in the 80s, MinTs in the
60s.) Dewpoints will be in the 50s to 60s for the duration of the
period leading to less humid/muggy conditions.

As the high pressure slips off to the east Sunday and into Monday,
we will see southerly flow return to the area. While temps and
dewpoints will rebound, they will do so slowly. Model guidance is
still a bit murky going into the next work week, however we could
see some low end rain chances with a weak coastal trough moving
across the Gulf and with a disturbance moving over the Rockies and
into the Plains.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The main story in the aviation forecast is the low ceilings with
MVFR conditions to start the period becoming IFR overnight. At
this point, winds are progged to stay up enough that fog will not
be an issue, maybe just some minor visibility restrictions. IFR
ceilings will again increase to MVFR by 08/15z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet
will prevail today and tomorrow. A cold front will push through
the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  72  90  71 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  83  74  86  74 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  88  76  88  76 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  85  75  87  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07