132
FXUS64 KMAF 161725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1225 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The setup for today is complicated as multiple mesoscale
boundaries will be present and interacting at different times as a
shortwave trough passes across the northern half of the CWA. An
outflow boundary has moved through southeast New Mexico and is
slowly moving through the Permian Basin. At the same time, a
dryline has tightened up on a line from just east of Carlsbad
south towards Pecos and along the Davis Mountain Foothills.
Southwest portions of the CWA look to remain dry through today
with the main chances for precipitation staying near or just north
of the I-10 corridor. A surface low with an associated cold front
will push into the area with the front stalling along the Pecos
River Valley.

South of the cold front and east of the dryline will see
favorable environmental conditions for severe storms to develop.
Ample instability, steep lapse rates (>7C/km), and bulk shear
>40kts will be present and allow storms to become supercellular.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with any
storms. Storm or boundary interactions may enhance low level
environments and lead to a tornado or two. North of the cold
front, large hail will be the main threat with any storms that
become severe. However, storm location will be varied and highly
dependent on where the aforementioned boundaries setup. Guidance
suggests early to mid afternoon development in a scattered nature
along the Pecos River Valley. From there, the activity moves to
the east over the course of the afternoon and evening.

As storms dissipate and move out of the area tonight,
temperatures drop below normal into the 50s. Rain chances will be
much lower heading into Friday as the shortwave ejects to the
east. Isolated storms will be possible over the Davis Mountains
during the afternoon. Highs reach into the 80s for most with 90s
along the Rio Grande Valley.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A zonal/split jet flow upper pattern will continue through the
long term forecast period. Westerly downsloping flow will cause
temperatures to rise well above normal with highs in the upper 90s
to low 100s everywhere but the higher elevations in the mountains.
In fact a few records may be broken Sunday and Monday and heat
stress may be an issue given the early timing of the triple digit
heat. Relief may arrive Wednesday as most extended models are
showing the arrival of a cold front. This may also be the next
chance for rainfall though this is not reflected in the PoP
forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

MVFR CIGs contine at KMAF this hour, clearing to FEW-SCT040-050 by
19Z. Scattered TSRA developing around the Sacramento-Guadalupe
Ranges early this afternoon, moving east through the mid-afternoon
hours. Likely TS impacts across SE NM and Trans-Pecos areas
between 20-23Z, with temporary reductions to 2-4 miles within
storms. Surface winds generally 330-010 at 10-15 knots, with gusty
and variable winds around TSRA this afternoon. Storm threat
ending by sunset, with FEW-SCT140 overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               80  56  83  60 /  60  50  10   0
Carlsbad                 82  57  87  61 /  60  20  10   0
Dryden                   97  63  94  64 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  58  88  64 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           77  54  80  63 /  40  10  10   0
Hobbs                    78  54  83  58 /  60  40  10   0
Marfa                    84  47  84  53 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  57  84  61 /  40  30  10   0
Odessa                   84  58  85  63 /  40  30  10   0
Wink                     89  58  89  61 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Dennhardt