250
FXUS64 KMAF 120515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak disturbance
continue to move east across portions of the Permian Basin. A few
locations saw brief heavy rain and some small hail. Unfortunately,
forecast models are really struggling today, especially the CAMs.
This gives us low confidence heading into this afternoon and evening
regarding more storm chances. Clouds are beginning to clear along
and west of the Pecos River which will lead to destabilization ahead
of another shortwave expected to arrive over the next few hours. If
we see enough heating an additional round of storms will develop
mainly west of the Pecos River and move east. Most storms will
remain elevated with large hail being the main threat. Further south
near the Davis Mountains east onto the Stockton Plateau storms could
become more surface based. This would allow for more of a damaging
wind threat in addition to large hail.

Winds veer to the west and southwest Sunday with the passage of an
upper trough to our north. Drier, downsloping surface flow will help
warm temperatures significantly with highs generally in the upper
80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm and dry days return for Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge
passes overhead. Meanwhile, persistent south-southeasterly flow
across the Permian Basin helps to sharpen a dryline backed up
against the higher terrain by Wednesday morning. This dryline is
sharpened in time for the next upper trough to approach from the
west. Good moisture and steep lapse rates should lead to a fair
amount of instability east of the dryline with the NBM and clusters
still in agreement of seeing 1500+ J/kg in the warm sector. This
paired with 30-40kts of shear could suggest that Wednesday may shape
up to be our next day of severe weather...we`ll keep an eye on this
as we get a bit closer. A cold front is ushered into the region on
the heels of the aforementioned trough, brining northerly winds and
cooler temperatures in briefly for Thursday before temperatures
quickly rebound for the tail-end of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR/MVFR CIGs have redeveloped across the terminals. Current
conditions are likely to be the worst of the TAF period before
improving near and just after 12Z when westerly winds push
moisture west and VFR remains through the remainder of the TAF
period. Gusty westerly winds will create light low level
turbulence for GA aircraft.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  94  64  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            60  88  61  94 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  80  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    48  85  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     57  86  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   59  87  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     59  90  60  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10