305
ACUS11 KWNS 092202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092202
TXZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 221...

Valid 092202Z - 092330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 221. 2-4
inch diameter hail and 60-85 mph wind gusts are the main concerns,
though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Three large, intense supercells, with echo tops
exceeding 50 kft, continue to progress southeastward across central
portions of TX, with the storms southwest of the Metroplex having a
history of producing 2-3 inch diameter hail. Ahead of the storms,
upper 80s F/mid 70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints, overspread by
8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, are boosting MLCAPE to the 3000-5000
J/kg range (per 21Z mesoanalysis). Coinciding with this extreme
buoyancy are elongated hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective bulk
shear. The preceding CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that
intense supercells with 2-4 inch diameter hailstones and severe
gusts (perhaps up to 85 mph) should continue over the next several
hours, as also suggested by the latest Warn-on-Forecast ensemble
output. The severe gusts will be most likely with any supercells
that can merge and support cold pool development.

Storms appear to progress immediately behind a surface boundary,
that combined with weak low-level speed an directional shear (per
recent regional VADs) should temper the tornado threat to a degree.
However, given the extreme buoyancy, any supercell that can move
ahead of the boundary could potentially produce a tornado. Later
this evening, some upscale growth of the supercells into one or more
MCSs appears likely, and the severe wind threat should increase
accordingly.

..Squitieri.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31299982 32329845 32679736 32549680 32119666 31669682
            31349735 31059810 30819890 30729977 31299982