Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 121751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121751
TXZ000-121915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Areas affected...Portions of Central into East Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...
Valid 121751Z - 121915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232
continues.
SUMMARY...Additional storms may develop in central Texas near the
warm front. Storms will likely be slightly elevated and pose
primarily a risk of large hail. Storm coverage remains a bit
uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus deepening along the
warm frontal boundary in central Texas. Though the warm front has
been reinforced by earlier convective outflow, the front may
preferentially lift north in this location given that the bulk of
convection is now farther east. Additional storm development seems
most likely to occur within southwestern portions of WW 232 this
afternoon. However, forecast soundings do suggest there may be some
subsidence behind the earlier convection which creates some
uncertainty as to storm coverage. Should storms develop, large hail
will be the primary hazard. Any increase in tornado risk will be
conditional on the warm front lifting northward and sufficient
low-level jet strength remaining (as the core is forecast to move
east with time).
..Wendt.. 05/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30719478 30499490 30409512 29949545 29889553 29609597
29749678 30199752 30959786 31389767 31619720 31879537
31599475 31209466 30719478