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000
FXUS62 KMFL 251706
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
106 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Models show high pressure/mid level ridging dominating the
weather pattern across the region. The ridge gradually shifts
eastward through the weekend with overall subsidence and dry
conditions prevailing. Afternoon temperatures will again range
from the lower 80s near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s
over interior areas. An isolated shower or two can`t be totally
ruled out over the interior this afternoon, mainly along sea
breeze boundaries, but chances remain very low. Given the light
flow and dry airmass, another seasonably cool night can be
expected tonight with lows generally in the 60s.

Reinforcing high pressure is seen in models arriving on Friday, which
will increase pressure gradients across Soflo. This will result in
increasing easterly winds and thus a weakening of the Gulf breeze
circulation. Temperatures will remain similar over the east coast
(although dewpoints will slightly increase), but slightly increase
over the western half of the area, but should remain seasonable
overall. Given the continued influence of mid-lvl ridging, rainfall
is once again not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will establish itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend
into early next week, displacing the storm track well north of the area.
At the surface (initially strong) high pressure over the western Atlantic
will be the main feature of interest supporting breezy easterly winds
through the period, although the high will gradually be weakening into
next week. Generally dry conditions will prevail given the influence of
the ridge, although some shallow coastal convergence generated showers
can`t be ruled out over the east coast and Atlantic waters. Temperatures
will be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with the warmest
highs (generally upper 80s) over the Interior/west coast with cooler
highs (generally low to mid 80s) over the east coast. The reverse will
be true with overnight lows with milder readings (low 70s) over the east
coast and 60s over the Interior/west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR continues at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Easterly
winds become generally light tonight, then becoming breezy with
periods of gusts in the 20-23kt range Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Current benign boating conditions will continue tonight as the
moderate easterly winds become light and variable. Then on Friday,
winds will increase and remain breezy through the weekend as
strong high pressure north of the area builds southward.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the Palm Beach
coastline, and it is expected to expand into the rest of the
Atlantic beaches this afternoon and through the weekend as
easterly flow increases.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week over
portions of Interior and SW Florida as generally easterly flow continues
to prevail. Minimum RHs below 40% can be expected over these portions of
the area through Friday, with localized values approaching 35% this
afternoon. Although fuels will remain dry (the Significant Fire Potential
Forecast remains in the orange category), winds should remain below fire
weather headline criteria through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  82  73  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     65  83  69  82 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        68  83  70  82 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        68  82  70  82 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  80  72  80 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  70  81  72  81 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   69  84  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  68  81  70  81 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       69  82  71  82 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           67  88  68  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17