466
FXUS63 KMPX 131736
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke will be becoming elevated this morning, with improving
  surface conditions.

- A few chances for showers and storms midweek and next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Smoke continues to shroud the Upper Midwest early this morning.
Visibilities are generally in the 3 to 5 mile range. Current
air quality is in the unhealthy category across
central/southern MN and west central WI. However, there is
improvement occurring across northern MN and smoke modeling
continues to shift the near-surface smoke south into Iowa this
morning. Some less dense smoke may remain near the surface
through the day, but generally the greatest concentrations will
become more elevated with time. Given the northwest flow
pattern aloft, waves of smoke will keep skies rather hazy over
the next couple days, and likely periodically for the next few
months as fires spread and new ones form over drought-stricken
Canada.

A weak shortwave trough will swing across the northern Plains
Wednesday. This system won`t have a lot of moisture to work with
and the tongue of moisture will be narrow, but there should be
enough to produce a band of showers Wednesday and Wednesday
evening along the front. Poor lapse rates will limit instability
overall but the more moist forecast soundings do show some
meager CAPE and a thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out if the
quality of moisture turns out a bit better. Cyclonic flow
Thursday will keep hit and miss shower chances going.

Another system over the northern Rockies will advance east next
weekend. West southwest flow will send the EML into the region
while flow improves from the Gulf thanks to ridging over the
east coast. Predictability at this range is poor and there has
been a lot of spread in the guidance. Nevertheless, it could
become more convectively active if the pattern evolves toward
this idea.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions throughout. Visibility from the wildfire smoke
has increased, and should remain above 6 miles throughout the
TAF period. North winds should become northeast and eventually
southeast for Tuesday morning. No precipitation is expected.

KMSP...No weather-related aviation concerns expected with VFR
conditions throughout. Visibility from the wildfire smoke has
increased, and should remain above 6 miles throughout the TAF
period. North winds should become northeast and eventually
southeast for Tuesday morning. No precipitation is expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR, chc PM -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB