Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252108
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 PM MST Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool temperatures and daytime breeziness continue
through Tuesday, with on and off chances for showers. After a warming
trend with dry weather late this week, another weather system should
arrive late this next weekend or early the following week. Cooler
temperatures, chances for showers and mountain snow, and increased
winds would likely accompany this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moist and unstable flow continues aloft with weak
cyclonic flow has resulted in plenty of convection developing with
the solar insolation. We ran an 18Z sounding with a good deal more
CAPE (nearly double) than modeled overall. Lightning has been sparse
but still possible through the daylight hours. Precipitation amounts
generally not very heavy. Bit of a breeze to make the much cooler
than normal temperatures feel that much cooler.

Tomorrow will be similar to today with the western back edge of the
precipitation shifted to the east and likely just east of Tucson.
Similar temperatures and similar winds as well.

Wednesday the mid-upper atmosphere will be undergoing a rapid
transition from the cyclonic back side of the outgoing trough around
midnight, to anticyclonic drier flow and rapidly rising heights as a
ridge builds in early Wednesday. Therefore expecting dry conditions
with temperatures peaking 5-10 degrees warmer than Tuesday afternoon
along with weaker winds.

The upper level ridge axis crosses overhead early Thursday morning
with heights remaining relatively high into Saturday. This will allow
for more warming at the surface where we hang out with high
temperatures 7-11 degrees warmer on Thursday vs Wednesday. That will
put high temperatures right above normal for late March and
potentially a bit above especially Friday. A warm (compared to
recent) few days.

Models continue to indicate another anonymously strong upper trough
impacting the southwest later this weekend into next week. The
Climate Prediction Center has keyed into this with a much cooler and
wetter than normal outlook for the 6-10 day period. Yes, it looks
like more weed growing weather is on the way. Current runs have
shifted the timing back about 18 hours but that type of change is
expected at the forecast time range. Can`t get hung up on details
yet but the overall theme is another weather system that will bring
colder and wetter conditions to the area with occasional breezy days.
Looks like another slow mover so once it arrives (Sunday-ish) it
will likely be around for about 3 days in some fashion, much like the
current one.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds 7k-10k ft MSL with SCT SHRA and mountain SHSN and
isolated thunderstorms. After 26/04Z conds becoming SCT to locally
BKN 7-10k ft with isolated showers. Winds W-NWly 15-25 kts and gusts
to 30 kts easing to light and variable overnight. Wind becoming SW to
W 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 26/18Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cool temperatures with afternoon-evening chances for
showers and breezy west to northwest winds continue through Tuesday.
A strong warm up will occur Thursday into Saturday with a ridge
building overhead. Another storm system is expected to impact the
region late this weekend into the early part of the following week
with windy conditions, colder temperatures and a threat of showers
Sunday into the following week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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