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FXAK67 PAJK 241345

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
545 AM AKDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ A surface ridge currently
positioned over the panhandle will slowly drift eastward as a
weather front moves NE into the eastern gulf Thursday night. Mid-
level onshore flow will keep the clouds around today with
scattered showers across SE AK. Winds ahead of the front will
reach small craft levels tonight along the outer coast. Rain along
the front will impact the outer coast and southern panhandle
Friday morning pushing northeastward through Friday afternoon.

Model preference was to blend with the GFS as it provided a good
middle ground dealing with the low position and timing of the
front. Minimal changes were needed for the Thursday to Friday
period. High temperatures were cooled slightly Friday, but will
remain in the mid-to-low 50s. Additional adjustments were made to
the winds and pressure field on Saturday using a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF to decrease winds slightly ahead of the next front.
Confidence is above average for today through tomorrow.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 PM Wednesday/
The ECMWF is running a bit fast and strong with the low that moves
in this weekend, nudged the forecast using NAM/GFS and Canadian
where needed.

By Saturday the low will be in the southwestern portion of the
gulf with its associated weather front still on track to spread up
over the Panhandle. The southern area will be rain throughout the
day, but the northern area could see a break until Saturday night
as the front pushes north. The low is coming in stronger and the
forecast is now hoisting a Gale Warning for the gulf and outer
coastal areas Saturday and diminish down to SCA overnight and
through Sunday. The inside waters mainly near ocean entrances and
from Frederick Sound southward will see wind up to 30 kt Saturday.
Winds will be 20 kt or less over the gulf by late Sunday night and
15 kt or less over the Panhandle and inside waters. By Tuesday
winds should be 15 kt or less through Thursday.

The low will move into the central gulf Sunday evening. Overnight
the low will move near the Fairweather grounds, quickly filling
Monday night before dropping southeast and becoming a trof by
Tuesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will build over the
Panhandle Tuesday through Thursday.

Lowered temperatures again for Sunday a couple of degrees.
Temperatures are still expected to remain in the mid to upper 50s
during the day and range into the 40s overnight. With less clouds
possible with the building ridge, temperatures rise a few degrees
through mid week.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.




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