Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 201502

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
902 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Shortwave is exiting our far east and snow will be ending in
Fallon and Carter Counties over the next hour or so. It will then
be a dry day across our cwa outside of a few mountain snow
showers, mainly this afternoon. With a bit stronger push of
downslope west winds and only spotty snow cover across our western
cwa, have opted to raise forecast high temps by a few degrees in
our west. This includes Billings where we may see our first 50
degree day at the airport in March. JKL


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Shortwave moving across the region overnight was producing some
scattered snow showers across our northeast zones from Rosebud to
Fallon County. The best forcing with this feature moves east into
the Dakotas after 12Z, with just some lingering showers expected
over Fallon county and adjacent areas after sunrise.

Otherwise, seasonal temps and generally quiet weather still look
on tap. Highs over the lower elevations should be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s. This of course is well-advertised to increase the
risk of ice jams and low land flooding due to snow melt. We do
continue to see chance of occasional snow showers in the
Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains over the next couple of days thanks
to a prevailing moist southwest flow over the inter-mountain
region. This looks mainly late day/early evening type activity on
a diurnal cycle. Though we are carrying some decent PoPs in the
high country, we dont expect there to be much accumulation or
notable widespread impacts. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Warm end to the work week as a ridge of high pressure will be in
control over the region. Expecting temperatures in climb into the
mid 50s on Thursday afternoon ahead of a disturbance approaching
western Montana. The mountains should get another helping of snow
Thursday night into Friday evening as the disturbance passes
through. Much of the precipitation will be focused in the
mountains and nearby foothills and in eastern Montana near the
Dakotas border. Temperatures will be tricky Friday with some
guidance hinting at temperatures into low 60s on Friday. Believe
this is a little high but if we can clear out some of the cloud
cover, and westerly downslope conditions take over, certainly
can`t rule these values out in locations west of Forsyth and
Broadus where snow cover is much lower.

Unsettled conditions anticipated over the weekend and into the
start of next week. Southwest flow expected to take over in the
mid levels with occasional rain and snow showers for the
mountains and the plains. With the increased clouds in place
expect a return to cooler conditions for the weekend with high
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 40s. Cooler conditions
are anticipated out east where greater snow cover keeps
conditions cooler.

Model spread increases rapidly into the start of next week
in regards to the details, but conditions remain unsettled
enough, and uncertain enough, to warrant a mention of rain and
snow at the beginning of next week. Dobbs


Snow is ending in far southeast MT as of 15z, but an area of MVFR
ceilings remain east of KMLS. Flight conditions should improve to
VFR across the cwa by midday, with the exception of occasional
mountain obscurations due to isolated snow showers. Patchy mainly
valley fog is possible in eastern areas, including KMLS and KBHK,
late tonight. JKL



    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 050 026/052 031/053 037/052 030/047 026/042 024/045
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
LVM 049 027/054 032/059 036/054 030/046 023/041 022/044
    0/U 01/B    23/W    43/W    33/W    33/W    22/W
HDN 048 022/052 027/056 032/053 027/048 023/043 020/045
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/W    23/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 038 020/044 024/043 030/042 025/041 022/037 018/039
    0/U 00/U    01/B    32/W    22/W    32/W    11/B
4BQ 042 020/049 025/050 033/049 027/047 023/040 020/042
    0/U 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    43/W    22/W
BHK 035 017/041 022/043 031/043 026/041 023/037 018/038
    1/E 00/U    00/B    52/W    22/W    43/W    21/B
SHR 046 021/052 028/057 035/057 028/049 024/041 021/044
    0/U 00/U    01/B    23/W    32/W    33/W    22/W




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