Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 171801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
101 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Ceilings lifting into high end MVFR up north and remaining lower
end MVFR to IFR closer to the coast. The immediate coast is dealing
with visibility-limiting sea fog. Confidence is highest on many
terminals lifting up to a broken low end VFR status this afternoon
then quickly filling in to MVFR cats around sunset. More southern-
based air field ceilings are anticipated to fall into periods of
IFR or even LIFR within fog limiting visibilities to under 2 or 3
miles. This muck will be slow to improve into areawide late Sunday
morning MVFR. There is a low chance that CLL will be clipped
by/experience late evening or early Sunday (overnight) morning
thunderstorms as a cluster of convection travels eastward across
north central state. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

At 800 AM, a cold front extended from about Texarkana to Abilene
to Dalhart with a dryline extending from about Abilene to Del
Rio. 12z CRP sounding shows a strongly capped airmass with PW
values around 1.4 inches. Convective temps are in the lower 90s
with dry air noted in the 900-700 mb layer. At LCH, things look
much different. PW values are near 1.35 inches but the airmass is
much less capped and convective temps are in the upper 70s. The
surface to 850 mb layer is saturated and capping at 850 is much
weaker and is breakable with modest heating. 12z ARW and NMM are
showing much greater potential for showers and thunderstorms over
the extreme eastern part of the CWA for this afternoon. Other than
heating, can`t really find any impetus for lift. Global models
show 500 mb ridging increasing over the CWA this afternoon and a
speed max over West Texas will place SE TX in a subsident zone
this afternoon. It`s hard to go against both the ARW, NMM and HRRR
so will raise PoPs for the eastern third of the region for the
afternoon and would expect coverage to increase once temperatures
warm into the 80`s.

Will be dropping the Rip Current statement as the Galveston Beach
Patrol is reporting low to moderate rip current conditions. Web
cameras not showing much in the way of fog at this time but
conditions remain somewhat favorable for fog and will continue
the Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 1 PM. 43


College Station (CLL)      67  85  60  81  49 /  30  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)              68  83  68  84  53 /  20  40  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  78  69  82  58 /  20  20  20  10   0


GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda



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