Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260004
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
804 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Very warm temperatures are expected for Memorial day weekend and
into next week. There will be some chances for thunderstorms off
and on but widespread coverage or washouts are not expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Chances for storms will move in tonight. While storms are already
on radar southwest of the forecast area, there is much drier dew
points over central Indiana and thus these storms are having a
hard time making it northeast. Did add some small chances to the
southwestern counties for the next few hours in case a few make it
there.

Chances for storms later tonight look better over the northern
counties and maximized pops there during the overnight. Low
temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night given the
southerly flow and more cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Chances for storms will continue through the day on Saturday. High
resolution output trends indicate there could be dry weather
building in by the afternoon, but not confident in this solution
so will keep at least a slight chance going through the day.

Saturday night and Sunday morning models are trending dry and went
with this. Sunday afternoon though still looking at some
variability in instability in the models. Still think some
isolated popups could occur over central and southeast parts of
the area so included a slight chance in those locations.

High confidence high temperatures Sunday and Monday will climb
into the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Ridging aloft at the end of the holiday weekend will hold serve
through midweek across much of the area...gradually getting
undercut by the remnants of newly named Alberto lifting out of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Model guidance differs on how far north the Alberto remnants will
make it Wednesday into Thursday before being kicked out to the
east. Remain somewhat skeptical that the remnants make it all the
way into the Ohio Valley...but think the potential is there for
the Alberto leftovers to get close enough to produce better
convective coverage over the forecast area with the influx of
tropical moisture interacting with an unstable airmass. Highest
rain chances come Wednesday and Wednesday night before the system
departs to the east on Thursday as a rapidly weakening upper wave.
Not everyone is likely to see rain with this system...but the
potential for some locations to get under soaking showers and
storms will grow during this timeframe.

Highs Tuesday will again make a run at 90 before the arrival of
more clouds and rain pull temperatures back into the mid 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. With the ridging most likely to
reestablish late next week into next weekend once the Alberto
remnants shift away from the region...highs back near if not
slightly above 90 return as early as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Currently expecting VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. The only
potential fly in that ointment being if any convection comes over
or near any of the TAF sites. Confidence not high that any of the
sites will be impacted as many of the showers in central Illinois
exhibit a weakening trend shortly after developing. Short range
model solutions weaken and dissipate much of this shower and
thunderstorm activity before pushing into the TAF site areas.
Decided to continue with VCTS starting 02-04Z to handle the
possibility of these showers impacting the area. A drop to MVFR
ceiling and MVFR to potentially IFR vsbys would be possible if one
of the TAF sites happen to be impacted by convection. Better
chances for this occurring appears to be over HUF/IND/LAF...as
much of the precipitation south of Interstate 70 has weakened.
Chances for convection look to end between 10-15Z tomorrow
morning.

Winds through the period will generally be light ranging from the
south to southwest.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...MRD



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