Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 222026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
626 AM ChST Wed May 23 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with light winds and isolated showers prevail
across the Marianas this morning. Latest buoy observations show seas
between 3 and 4 feet.


Light winds with good surface heating and abundant moisture will make
island convection a possibility again today. This effect could be
strong enough to kick off thunderstorms again today, though winds are
expected to increase a bit today. This would result in the
thunderstorms possibly pushing off the west side of the island.
Therefore, added slight chance of thunderstorms to Guam and Guam
coastal waters for this afternoon. Expect any thunderstorms that do
develop to be west of Guam over the western waters. Otherwise, no
changes made to the inherited forecast.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind trough is progressing westward through Kosrae State and
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are present north of
Kosrae while more sporadic convection is seen elsewhere south of
Pohnpei and nearer Majuro. While the bulk of showers will pass to the
north of Pohnpei, isolated thunderstorms are still expected the next
couple of days. Similarly, for Kosrae, isolated thunderstorms are
expected in the short term with some drier weather arriving by
Thursday. At Majuro, isolated thunderstorms will develop after noon
and linger tonight. Another round of trade-wind convergence will
bring more moisture to the region around Sunday.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will cause easterly swell and wind
waves to be elevated the next couple of days. Surf along east facing
reefs of Kosrae could become hazardous at times.


.Western Micronesia...
Quiet weather continues at Chuuk this morning, but isolated
thunderstorms will reach the area tonight with showers increasing by
Thursday as a trade-wind trough moves by. At Yap and Palau, weak
trade-wind convergence will trigger a few thunderstorms in the area
the next couple of days. The trade-wind trough approaching Chuuk will
eventually reach the far western islands late in the week,
maintaining small chance of thunderstorms. The ECMWF is beginning to
show more moisture over the weekend, so if additional model runs
maintain that trend, scattered showers may need to be added to the
forecasts for Yap and Koror.


Marianas Waters...None.


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