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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261751
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

GOES-16 split-window difference imagery and webcams indicate
blowing dust emanating off of the recent 117 Fire burn scar in
southern El Paso County and Badger Hole Fire burn scar in eastern
Baca county. Winds out of the north are gusting over 40 mph in
these areas, carrying dust well south, reducing visibility and air
quality in areas. Have added blowing dust to the grids through
the early afternoon, after which wind speeds will begin to
decrease.

UPDATE Issued at 856 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Added a slight chance for rain/snow showers up on the Palmer
Divide for this morning as upslope flow and weak upper-level
forcing move through the region. Radar imagery shows weak echoes,
and a Monument webcam shows a mix of rain/snow starting to fall.
Very little to no accumulations are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Currently.

A cold front was just north of the forecast area at 3 am. This front
was associated with a fast moving short wave which was locate over
Wyoming. A band of cloudiness was lagging behind the front, and a
few showers were noted in Wyoming.

Temps varied considerably across the region at 3 am. %0s were noted
just east of the mtns, while most other temps on the plains and
valleys were in the 30s and 40s. Cold air pooling was noted in a few
of the valleys as nearby lower-mid mtn temps were noticeably warmer
then the valley floors.

Today...

Front will blast south across the region early this morning and
should reach the NM border around 6-7 AM. Winds will be quite gusty
behind the front with north winds of 30 to 45 mph across most of the
plains. I cannot rule out some light showers this morning,
especially over the Palmer Divide, but measurable precip is not
anticipated.

Although it will be windy on the plains, temps will still manage to
get into the 60s most of the plains, with 50s on the divides.
Valleys should see highs in the 50s and 60s today, with 30s and 40s
in the mtns. Variable morning cloudiness over the plains this
morning will become mostly sunny by this afternoon.

Mtns and valleys will see less wind then the plains today, although
it still will be breezy. These areas will also see less clouds.

Tonight...

Clear skies with lows in the  L30s over the plains and 20s and 30s
mtns. Breezy conditions across the plains in the early evening will
become light and variable tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Friday and Saturday...An upper ridge will gradually slide east
across the region through Saturday, providing for warm temperatures.
A low pressure system over the West Coast will pump moisture up
across the Four Corners and into western CO beginning Fri afternoon,
and as the upper ridge edges to the east the pcpn coverage will do
so as well, spreading across all of the higher terrain through Sat
morning, then across the eastern plains Sat aftn. Look for high
temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Fri, then 60s for the high
valleys and 70s to around 80F for the plains on Sat.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long range models indicate that the low
pressure system over the West Coast will move onshore across the
Pacific NW on Sun, increasing southwest flow aloft across the Four
Corners region. The upper low degrades somewhat and the whole upper
pattern becomes a longwave trough over the western half of the
country, with another low forming and dumb-belling across the Desert
SW and up across CO through Wed. The whole scenario is very chaotic,
but what stands out is that the forecast area should have a good
chance for widespread pcpn Sun through the first half of the next
work week, under nearly constant west to southwest flow aloft.
Southwest winds will increase and become gusty at times both Sun and
Mon, and coupled with the expected low humidity levels both days
across the eastern plains, fire weather conditions will near
critical levels once again. Temps will start out very warm on Sun,
then gradually cool through the extended period due to extensive
cloud cover and the expected rainfall. Expect maximum temps in the
60s for the high valleys, and 70s to mid 80s for the plains on Sun
and Mon. Tue will cool into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. As the low passes
overhead Wed, temps will be the coolest with 50s for the high
valleys and 60s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Winds out of the north will remain gusty through much of the
afternoon at KPUB and KCOS, though they will weaken slowly. By
around 9 PM, winds will be less than 10 knots for the rest of the
evening and Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected at KCOS,
KPUB and KALS for the next 24 hours.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LINE