Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 212316 RRA
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111-113-115-VTC003-25-MAC003-CTC005-040116-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
716 PM EST Thu Mar 21 2019

...Flood threat is above normal for the rest of the winter/spring
for rivers fed by the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains

The spring flood threat is above normal across the northern half of
the outlook area due to significant snowpack (still accumulating!).
Elsewhere, generally south of I-90, the spring flood threat is
normal.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not
address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the sixth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 21st to
April 4th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow depths south of I-90 across the outlook area are hydrologically
insignificant at this time. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York
and similarly in the Green Mountains of Vermont, snow depth ranges
from a few inches up to nearly three feet; liquid equivalents range
from an inch to nearly a foot. Snow estimates in the Adirondacks are
currently a moving target as significant snowfall is forecast
through the first weekend of the outlook period.

...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York
are near normal.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

Some river ice remains in place on the upper Hudson River, however
large sections of the river are showing large open channels, a
promising development for continued slow melt-out of river ice. The
threat for ice jam flooding is diminishing but has not ended.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoirs are at 93 percent of capacity, which is normal for
this time of year.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels in the
Upper Hudson/Sacandaga watershed are variable, with the Great
Sacandaga Lake at eight and a half feet above normal and Indian Lake
at over three feet below normal. In the Black River watershed, Sixth
Lake is two feet below historical averages while Stillwater
Reservoir and Old Forge are half a foot and a quarter foot below
normal, respectively.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day (for March 26 -30) outlook calls for below normal
temperatures and precipitation, while the 8 to 14 day outlook (March
28 - April 3) moderates back to near normal temperatures and
precipitation amounts look to increase with above normal
precipitation highlighted.

...SUMMARY...

The spring flood threat is above normal across the northern half of
the outlook area due to significant snowpack (still accumulating!).
Elsewhere, generally south of I-90, the spring flood threat is
normal.

It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at
any time of year. Extended hydrologic information will be included
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

The seventh Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
April 4th.

$$
bew

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/albany

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