Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 AM CDT Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...HISTORICALLY... Historically for Central Alabama...the river
flood season begins in early January. The number of river flood
events increases through late winter with a peak in early to mid
March and ending in April for the region.  The forecast for above
normal flooding means that flooding will likely be more widespread
and more frequest than typical.

...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

...STREAMFLOW...  As far as 28-day average streamflow...All of the
area is at least normal for this time of year with most USGS
stations showing above normal and some much above normal.  The
current daily averages also show above normal for most of the area.

...PAST PRECIPITATION... In the last 30 days, based on SERFC
multisensor precipitation estimates, well above normal precipitation
has occurred across the northern two-thirds of Central Alabama and
below normal in the southern third.  The 90 day departures from
normal precipitation still show above normal over all of the area
except the extreme southeast sections. Rainfall totals so far this
winter (December through February) across Central Alabama are
generally running from thirteen to eighteen inches in the southern
third of Central Alabama and twenty to twenty seven inches in the
remaining areas.


Location                 Rainfall December 2018 thru February 2019
                                 and Departure from Normal

Birmingham                            23.96 inches  (+10.14)
Anniston                              24.54 inches  (+13.72)
Tuscaloosa                            23.24 inches  ( +7.95)
Calera                                26.36 inches  (+10.48)
Montgomery                            16.79 inches  ( +2.00)
Troy                                  13.71 inches  ( -3.56)

...SOIL MOISTURE... Soil moisture profiles across Central Alabama
reflect the recent rainfall pattern across the area. Soil Moisture
Profiles are running above normal across all of Central Alabama.

...RESERVOIRS... Most of the reservoirs in Central Alabama are near
or above their guide curve for this time of year. As we head into
April and May, most reservoir target pools begin to increase for
their summer pool.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

...FUTURE PRECIPITATION... The short term rainfall for the 7-day
period ending March 14 shows two to four inches of rain across much
of Central Alabama...especially the northern sections.

As far as the longer term precipitation outlook through the
remainder of winter into early spring...Based on CPC long lead
outlooks, March still indicates above normal precipitation for the
month over the whole area.   The seasonal outlook from March through
May shows chances for above normal during that time period.  To see
the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. here is the link:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

For more information visit the Climate Prediction Center web
site at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... Overall, The February time frame saw a
break in the wet pattern in the southeast U.S.  However, in the last
14 days we have seen well above normal precipitation along the
northern sections of Central Alabama and near normal in the southern
areas. The potential for flooding is above normal with many rivers
still above normal, ground conditions still wet, and the potential
for above normal rain still forecast.

&&

...RELATED WEBSITES...

The SERFC issues a variety of products throughout the year to update
the outlook for water resources. The SERFC Water Resources Outlook
is updated every month.

For the latest multimedia version of the Water Resources
Outlook...go to...

   www.weather.gov/serfc

and click on Water Resources Outlook under the Water Supply pulldown
menu.

For weather information and forecasts from the National Weather
Service Office in Birmingham...go to:

   www.weather.gov/bmx

For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for Central Alabama...go to:

   http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bmx

For Precipitation Analysis...go to:

   http://water.weather.gov/precip/

For Precipitation Forecasts...go to:

   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qfp2.shtml

Questions/Comments?...Contact Roger McNeil, Service Hydrologist by
e-mail at roger.mcneil@noaa.gov or by phone at 205-664-3010.

$$


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