Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
800 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND..
...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER IN CONNECTICUT...

The spring freshwater flood potential is normal across most of
southern New England. The exception is the lower Connecticut River
in CT, where the Middle Haddam river gage was still in minor
flood.

Across southern New England, all of the river ice has gone and the
ice jam season has come to a close.

The following web site has a map depicting the freshwater flood
potential outlook...
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential.

This is the ninth and final winter/spring flood potential outlook of
the 2019 season. This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation and Temperatures...

April 2019 brought a considerable amount of rainfall to southern New
England. Rainfall totals ranged from 6 to 9.5 inches across much of
the region. This was 2 to 5 inches above normal. Temperatures for
the month averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal.

...Soil Moisture Conditions, River and Ground Water Conditions...

Soils continued to be quite moist for this time of year. Rivers
and streams were mostly running above to well above normal.
Ground water levels ranged from normal to well above normal.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

The ground was bare across southern New England. The snowpack in the
headwaters of the Connecticut and Merrimack Rivers was almost
completely gone.

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

Showers taper off this morning, then cloudy and cool conditions are
expected this afternoon. A warm front lifts into our region tonight,
bringing another round of showers that linger into Friday. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be light.

Low pressure will cross the region during Friday night, bringing
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is expected, though there could be locally higher
amounts with thunderstorms.  There is a continued chance for showers
through the weekend as another low passes south of the region, with
up to an inch of rainfall possible. High pressure will bring dry and
milder conditions Monday. Another chance of showers may move in
through mid week.

The week 2 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, from May 9-
15, calls for below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.  Some ensemble model data indicates at least another
significant rainfall event during week 2, but currently there is low
confidence on details.

...Summary...

The Spring flood potential is near normal across most of southern
New England, except for above normal along the lower Connecticut
River in CT.

As of this morning, the River Flood Warning that had been in
effect for the Connecticut River at Hartford was discontinued.
The Connecticut River at Hartford was in minor flood for almost 16
days, finally receding below Flood Stage early this morning. A
River Flood Warning continued for the Connecticut River at Middle
Haddam. The Middle Haddam river level is expected to fall below
Flood Stage later today. The Middle Haddam gage has also been in
minor flood for 16 days.

Although showery weather is expected over the next week, this
precipitation is not expected to produce flooding on area rivers and
streams. However these events will serve to keep river levels
elevated, or slow their gradual decline. The exception may be the lower
Connecticut River. This river will remain vulnerable to renewed
flooding for another week or so, until the river has a chance to
further recede. With the snow pack over the NH and VT headwaters
almost completely gone, the overall flood potential has diminished
for the lower Connecticut River.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to https://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Current Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

$$

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