Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FGUS71 KBTV 021951

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

This is the ninth flood outlook for the 2019 winter/spring
season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up of river ice across central
and northern Vermont and northern New York.


The winter/spring flood potential for open water flooding is
above normal for the Lake Champlain region in New York and
Vermont. The remainder of the region has a normal to slightly
above normal flood potential.

The threat for flooding due to ice jams has passed for the

...Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...

Little to no snow cover remains below 2500 ft. Above 2500 ft,
snow depths of 1 to 2 feet are still common. The highest
elevations are still covered with 3 or more feet of snow; as of
May 1, the Mount Mansfield snow stake was showing a pack of 75
inches. This is around two feet above the long term average for
the date.

Likewise, the snow water equivalent, or the amount of water
contained in the snowpack, is above normal for those areas that
still have snow. Locations above 2500 ft have 3 to 5 inches of
SWE, with a trace to 3 inches across deep wooded areas and the
high terrain. There are 6+ inches of water contained in the
snowpack across the highest peaks.

...River and Soil Conditions...

River flows are generally averaging above to well above normal
now due to above normal April precipitation and runoff due to

Soil moisture conditions have mostly increased or remained steady
due to the above normal precipitation through April along with
increasing snowmelt across Northern basins.

The latest Palmer Drought Severity Index, issued on April 27,
shows unusually moist conditions in the Adirondacks of New York.
The rest of the area has normal moisture states.

Taking a look at groundwater monitoring wells, courtesy of the
USGS, most gages are indicating above normal levels heading into
early May. The only exception to this is the Saint Lawrence Valley
of Northern New York where near normal to below normal conditions

...Weather Outlook...

The overall pattern has been active over the past month, with
above normal temperatures and precipitation. A continued active
weather pattern is expected with chances for some above normal
precipitation. Average temperatures will be dependent on
individual low tracks.

The official National Weather Service 6-14 day outlook for 6 May
through 14 May 2019 is in general agreement with the assessment
for slightly below normal temperatures and chances for above
normal precipitation.


Based on the above information, the threat for open water
flooding due to runoff from snowmelt and rainfall is above normal
across the Champlain Valley region of New York and Vermont. The
flood potential across the rest of our forecast area is normal to
slightly above normal.

It is important to note that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of the year, even in areas that have little
or no snow on the ground.

Barring a major late season snow event over the next two weeks,
this will be the last winter/spring flood potential outlook issued
by the National Weather Service office in Burlington for this

Access current weather conditions and forecasts on our web site
at www.weather.gov/btv.



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