Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
553 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MAY 2ND...

This is the eighth flood potential outlook of the 2019 season.
Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water
equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them,
along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

There is virtually no snow pack left across the region. The only
remaining snow is across higher terrain on the Tug Hill and
western Adirondacks. There are some isolated areas with a couple
inches of snow water equivalent (SWE), but this only covers a
fraction of the basin. Current river and creek flows are above
normal across the area, with much above normal levels on the Black
River. The Black River has been near action stage for the better
part of the past two weeks due to a combination of run off from
snow melt and periodic rain.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin as of Thursday
morning, April 18th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........Mainly bare, except up to 6 inches on the Tug
Hill and Adirondacks.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Mainly none, except up to 3 inches on the Tug
Hill and Adirondacks.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Much above normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

Warm temperatures will continue today and Friday, with daytime highs
in the 60s and 70s. The weekend will be slightly cooler, but
temperatures still will be above freezing. After this, temperatures
should not be a factor since all the snow pack is likely to be
melted.

It will be a wet pattern Friday and Saturday, with a deep southerly
flow providing moisture with rain showers. This is likely to
produce between three-quarters of an inch and inch and a half of
rain in the Friday and Saturday timeframe. After this, a series of
weak systems will move through early next week, but rainfall
amounts with these will be light. A system may bring moderate
rainfall amounts mid-week, but the risk of amounts over an inch is
low.

After this, long range guidance suggests the northern branch of
the jet stream will be to our north for much of the period, with
period waves or cut-off lows bringing rain showers to the area. The
Climate Prediction Center suggests above normal temperatures and
precipitation are slightly favored over climatology.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

The flood risk for the next two weeks is near normal. With
snowpack nearly gone, the main factor is the saturated ground and
above normal flows heading into the outlook period. The immediate
concern is the rain expected Friday and Saturday. This will
maintain high flows through this weekend, and could potentially
cause flooding. The greatest risk for flooding is along the Black
River which has the highest flows, however rainfall will be
convectively driven so locally higher amounts may also cause
flooding.

The pattern is a bit drier next week, but a stronger system with
significant rains cannot be ruled out later in the outlook period.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for specific
locations along rivers across Western New York can be found on the
internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can change, please
refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and statements for
additional information.

This is the last scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook of the
season. Thank you to all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel



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