Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1112 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019


...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
...Normal to Above Normal Flows Continue on the Rivers across the
Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and
tributaries of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central
Georgia and Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South
Carolina...

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South
Carolina...

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending March 7 2019...the hydrologic area
received rainfall amounts that ranged from 1.50 inches across the
southern Midlands and Central Savannah River Area up to 3 inches
across the northern and central Midlands. Precipitation amounts
have been above normal over the past 14 days.


           ...Soil Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

Rainfall from late fall into early winter has been well above
normal. The rainfall for January was near normal across most of
the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. The rainfall for
February was near to slightly below normal across the area.
However, March has seen above normal precipitation across the
area. There is an area of D0, Abnormally Dry, along the coastal
areas of South Carolina at this time. Go to www.drought.gov for
more details.


           ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14-day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for March 7th 2019 show most of the stream basins
across the Midlands and CSRA continue to have normal to much above
normal flows. At this time minor flooding continues along the
Congaree River south of Columbia and along the Wateree River at
Lake Wateree. Many area streams continue to have higher than
normal flows.

Broad River Basin: Much Above to Above Normal flows
Catawba/Wateree River Basin: Much Above to Above Normal flows
Saluda River Basin: Much Above to Above Normal flows
Santee River Basin: Above Normal flows
Edisto River Basin: Near Normal flows
Savannah River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows


           ...Reservoir Levels...

Reservoir pool elevations have fluctuated over the past 2 weeks
due to rainfall events and operators trying to keep pool heights
near their rule curve for late February into early March. Most
reservoir operators have already begun to fill for spring and
summer levels. A Note, reservoir pool elevations are dependent
on project operations.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Feb 21 2019    327.24 Feet
Mar 07 2019    329.30 Feet
Difference Plus  2.06 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Feb 21 2019    436.62 Feet
Mar 07 2019    438.25 Feet
Difference Plus  1.63 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Feb 21 2019    351.95 Feet
Mar 07 2019    356.84 Feet
Difference Plus  4.89 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.80 Feet)...
Feb 21 2019     75.43 Feet
Mar 07 2019     76.36 Feet
Difference Plus  0.93 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Feb 21 2019     94.83 Feet
Mar 07 2019    100.32 Feet
Difference Plus  5.49 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and
Gas...Greenwood County and Santee Cooper.


      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...A cold front will stall across the region through the
Saturday night. This will bring a chance of light rain and drizzle
to the area through the period. Another cold front will push into
the state Sunday night and stall with the possibility of more showers
across the state into Monday. Rainfall amounts over the next 7 days
will range from one quarter inch along the coast up to one inch
across the Piedmont and western Midlands.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8- to 14-day outlook for the period March 15th through March
21st calls for a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal
temperatures along with 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal
precipitation.

The 30-day outlook for March 2019 indicates equal chance of above,
below or normal temperatures along with a 40 to 50 percent chance
of above normal precipitation.

The 3-month outlook for March, April and May calls for a 33 to 40
percent chance of above normal temperatures along with a 40
percent chance of above normal precipitation.

The developing El Nino arrived on February 14th as the waters in
the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled sufficiently
for a period of time. There is a 55 percent chance the weak El
Nino will last into the spring across North America.


Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.


                   ...Summary/Outlook...

The area is still recovering from the above normal precipitation
that occurred during the early Winter period. Soils remain quite
moist and in some cases saturated. Additionally, flows along the
rivers across the Midlands and CSRA have continued to have normal
to above normal flows.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late winter into early spring. The peak occurs in early to mid
March then begins to end in late April for the region.

The medium-range to long-range precipitation guidance indicates
that precipitation may be above normal into the Spring season
with temperatures closer to normal or even above normal by the
time Spring arrives.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
March 21st, 2019.


                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please
contact...

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:
Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov


$$

Vaughan


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