Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
222 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019


...Final Spring Flood Potential Outlook For The Season...
...Normal to Above Normal Flows Continue on the Rivers across the
Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and tributaries
of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central Georgia and
Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South
Carolina...

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South
Carolina...

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending May 2 2019...the hydrologic area has
received rainfall amounts one quarter of an inch up to around one
inch. The heaviest rain fell across portions of the Central
Savannah River Area and southwest Midlands.

           ...Soil Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

Rainfall was below normal for February and March, but rebounded
a little in April with most stations receiving at least normal
precipitation amounts. Temperatures have also been 1 to 2 degrees
above normal for the period. The area of D0, Abnormally Dry, has
spread westward covering much of the area along and south of I-20.
The area of D1, Moderate Drought, continues to increase along and
east of the I-95 corridor to the coast. This is especially
present across the Lowcountry. Go to www.drought.gov for more
details.


           ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14-day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for May 2 2019 show most of the stream basins across
the Midlands and CSRA continue to have normal to above normal
flows. At this time there is no flooding occurring.

Broad River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows
Catawba/Wateree River Basin: Near Normal flows
Saluda River Basin: Near Normal flows
Santee River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows
Edisto River Basin: Near Normal flows
Savannah River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows

           ...Reservoir Levels...

Reservoir pool elevations have fluctuated very little over the
past 2 weeks due to operators trying to keep pool heights near
their rule curve for late May. Most reservoir operators have
already approached their expected pool heights for spring and
summer levels. A Note, reservoir pool elevations are dependent on
project operations.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Apr 18 2019    327.79 Feet
May 02 2019    328.28 Feet
Difference Plus  0.49 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Apr 18 2019    438.99 Feet
May 02 2019    439.01 Feet
Difference Plus  0.02 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Apr 18 2919    358.03 Feet
May 02 2019    358.01 Feet
Difference Minus 0.02 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.80 Feet)...
Apr 18 2019     75.71 Feet
May 02 2019     75.65 Feet
Difference Minus 0.06 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Apr 18 2019     98.28 Feet
May 02 2019     97.50 Feet
Difference Minus 0.78 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and
Gas...Greenwood County and Santee Cooper.


      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area over the
weekend. A relatively dry pattern will then persist behind the
front into the early and middle portion of next week. Rainfall
amounts from 1 to 2 inches are possible.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8- to 14 day outlook for the period May 14th through May 20th
calls for a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal temperatures
along with 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation.

The 30-day outlook for May 2019 indicates a 50 percent chance of
above normal temperatures along with equal chance of above, below
or normal precipitation.

The 3-month outlook for May, June and July calls for a 40 to 50
percent chance of above normal temperatures along with a 33 to 40
percent chance of above normal precipitation.

El Nino conditions continue as sea surface temperatures are above
average across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a 65 percent
chance, likely, that the El Nino will continue through the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2019. There is a 50 to 55 percent
chance that the weak El Nino will continue into the fall.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.

                   ...Summary/Outlook...

Soils have remained moist and stream flows at least normal or
higher across the area due to the abundant rain that fell in the
fall and winter.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late winter into early spring. The peak occurs in early to mid
March then begins to end in late April for the region.

The medium-range to long-range precipitation guidance indicates
that precipitation may be near to above normal through the
remainder of spring and summer with temperatures at or above
normal for the same period.

This will be the last Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for the season.
This produce will resume in the Winter and Spring of 2020.


                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please
contact...

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:
Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov


$$


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