Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1242 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019


...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH EARLY APRIL...

This is the sixth flood potential outlook of the 2019 season.
Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks through early spring
to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water
equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them,
along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks.
Flooding could occur with water levels having minor impacts even
with a below normal outlook.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
Conditions favor a near normal flood risk across northern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania at the time of this issuance. Despite a
period of below normal temperatures, most of the region snowpack
was eliminated and ground temperatures were above freezing.
Streamflows and river levels were near normal levels for the onset
of spring. Ground water and soil moisture is above normal,
primarily in the Ohio River river basins. The seven day forecast
calls for near normal precipitation, and the weekly and seasonal
outlooks favor above normal precipitation into early April with
near normal conditions for the rest of spring. Overall all
antecedent conditions favor a normal seasonal flood risk for early
spring.


...SNOWPACK...
No snowpack was present at the time of this issuance, though
snow showers were ongoing. Forecasted temperatures will
eliminated any snow amounts by midday Saturday. No additional
snowpack is expected thereafter.

STREAMFLOWS/RESERVOIR LEVELS
Streamflows were below normal across the Great Lakes drainage
basin, and near normal in the Ohio River drainage basin at the
time of this issuance. Reservoirs were near normal winter pool
levels with a high percentage of flood storage available.

...RIVER ICE...
No river ice reported and only spotty lake ice present.

...SOIL TEMPERATURES...
Soil temperatures were above freezing for all but the higher
terrain of the French Creek basin in Pennsylvania.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
The national spring flood outlook shows two-thirds of the
continental U.S. with an elevated risk of flooding. This outlook
bring a minor risk of flooding into the Ohio River drainage
basins, including the Muskingum and Scioto Rivers. The seven day
forecast calls for below normal temperatures. The Climate
Prediction Center calls for near to above normal temperatures into
early April and above normal precipitation. The one and three
month outlooks call for below normal temperatures and normal
precipitation.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
The overall weather pattern favors a normal flood risk through
early April. With the longer daylight hours the onset of
vegetation growth will soon begin, likely by early April.


...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across the region can be found on
the internet at www.weather.gov/cle. Since conditions can change,
please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.



$$



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