Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 071825
ESFIWX


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
125 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019


... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

...Minor Long Range Flood Risk...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 10.6 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  5.4 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 07 2019 - June 9 2019...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    7.5  7.8  8.6  9.2 10.2 10.6 10.9


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.4  7.8  9.0 10.1 11.4 12.8 13.2
Knox IN             10    6.6  6.8  7.3  7.9  8.6  9.5  9.7


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.4  5.7  6.1  6.8  7.3  8.0  8.4
Mottville MI         8    4.8  5.1  5.5  6.2  6.8  7.4  7.7
Elkhart IN          24   20.6 21.0 21.4 22.2 23.2 24.2 24.7
South Bend IN      5.5    2.3  2.8  3.4  4.4  5.4  6.8  7.3
Niles MI            11    7.0  7.5  8.1  9.1 10.1 11.4 11.9


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    4.1  4.2  4.5  5.4  6.5  7.8  8.2
Cosperville IN       6    5.7  5.8  6.0  6.2  6.4  6.7  7.3


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Soil moisture throughout the area is very moist due to recent wet
conditions. The moisture is locked within ice in the top 6 inches
of soil.

Snow coverage is currently negligible over much over the area,
except there is up to 0.10 inches of water equivalent within the
snowpack over southwest Lower Michigan.

...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook indicates
that there is an elevated indication, about a 40 percent probability
for below normal temperatures. There is near equal chances for above,
near normal or below normal precipitation. This indicates that there
is no strong indication either way.

The CPC experimental 3 to 4 week outlook indicates that there is equal
chances for above, near normal or below normal temperatures. There is
about a 55 percent chance for below normal precipitation for the
last two weeks of March.

...River Conditions...
Streamflow is currently near normal.  A period of recent cold
temperatures has allowed ice depth to increase thickness on area
rivers.

...Overall Flood Risk...
There is a minor long range flood risk. The area will be vulnerable
with respect to tracks of storm systems this spring. River ice could
also pose a risk for future flooding due to ice jam breakup.

...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

This is the last long-range probabilistic outlook for the Kankakee
and Saint Joseph River basins.


$$

Murphy/CM



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