Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FGUS73 KLMK 122145
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INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...Corrected Table 1 and 2 issues
National Weather Service Louisville KY
531 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2 Corrected...

This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.

The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is above normal for
this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to
rainfall.

This outlook is valid through May 2019.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/19/2019 - 06/17/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  13   11    8    8   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  23   25   12   13   <5   <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton             24.0   35.0   42.0 :  28   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill          10.0   12.0   14.0 :  32   35   21   22   15   16
:Green River
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :  22   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :  62   58    9    8   <5   <5
Woodbury            26.0   38.0   41.0 :  64   79   14   31    5   20
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock    30.0   36.0   40.0 :  20   22   10   16   <5   12
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  10    8    6   <5   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  16   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  14   11    6   <5   <5   <5
Lockport Lock       33.0   43.0   49.0 :  24   22    8    7   <5   <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  42   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  19   17    6   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :  30   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  16   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  22   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  55   52    6    8   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  36   37   16   14    9    7
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  30   33   15   16   <5    5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  19   20   15   15   12   13

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2019 - 06/17/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green        13.2   14.2   16.4   20.3   24.5   28.7   36.4
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        6.3    7.2    8.4   10.8   19.1   24.9   25.5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               9.7   10.0   13.4   17.5   25.0   28.7   33.4
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            5.5    5.8    6.9    7.9   10.9   15.5   16.5
:Green River
Munfordville         11.5   13.0   14.1   18.9   26.4   34.7   45.1
Rochester            13.2   14.6   16.3   17.6   20.1   24.7   27.0
Woodbury             15.5   21.0   24.1   28.4   33.3   40.0   41.1
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock     18.6   19.7   20.9   24.5   27.0   35.8   39.9
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock       12.3   13.0   14.1   19.5   22.6   31.0   35.6
Ford Lock            15.8   16.8   17.9   20.2   23.5   27.9   30.8
High Bridge Lock     16.6   17.6   19.0   21.8   24.0   32.4   36.4
Lockport Lock        16.0   17.7   19.7   26.1   32.3   41.8   45.0
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    18.2   18.7   20.2   23.3   28.7   32.6   36.9
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy               10.4   11.1   13.6   20.2   23.5   27.2   28.3
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        432.5  434.0  437.9  442.6  446.4  449.6  450.3
Cannelton Lock       29.6   30.6   36.2   39.7   42.6   43.9   44.8
McAlpine Lower       35.8   38.0   43.8   48.7   53.0   56.5   57.6
McAlpine Upper       14.0   15.2   17.1   19.1   22.4   25.5   26.5
Tell City            28.5   29.5   34.8   38.9   42.1   43.3   44.1
:Rolling Fork River
Boston               15.5   16.7   23.7   31.1   37.9   44.5   47.4
:Rough River
Dundee               13.6   15.1   18.8   21.4   25.9   29.0   30.0
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        5.6    5.9    6.9   10.3   19.5   30.5   31.7
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             7.9    8.4    9.8   12.0   17.8   23.9   24.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

This outlook calls for above normal chance for minor flooding due to
the current streamflow conditions and expected precipitation over the
next few weeks. Minor flooding means minimal or no property damage,
but possibly some public threat or inconvenience.

Ice jams and snow melt are usually not a factor for flooding in this
part of the country.

Since the beginning of December, precipitation and temperatures
across the region have been above normal.  Soil moisture was well
above normal.  Streamflows by early March were well above normal.
Reservoir levels were above normal.  Lake Cumberland in particular
was at record high levels.

An active weather pattern will continue over the next week with a mid
week storm system including some strong thunderstorms passing through
the region. Total rainfall over the next week is forecast to be
between 1-2 inches.

The 6 to 10 day outlook which goes out through March 22 calls for
below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  The 8 to
14 day outlook which goes out through March 26 calls for above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation over the region.  At this
time of year, normal temperatures are in the low 40s.  Average
rainfall through this time frame is 1-2 inches.

The outlook for March calls for slightly above normal
precipitation. Normal precipitation is between four and five inches.
The seasonal outlook for March through May also is for slightly above
normal precipitation.

This is the final spring and water resources outlook for this year.
Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the beginning of
each month.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.

Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.

Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.

Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

$$

AMS




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