Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1000 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 /900 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019/

...The 2019 Spring Flood Potential Outlook for East Tennessee...
Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina...

...Flood Risk Is Above Average For The Forecast Area...

Introduction...

This is the 2019 Spring Flood Potential Outlook issued by the
National Weather Service in Morristown, Tennessee for east
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and extreme southwestern North
Carolina. This issuance outlines current river and soil moisture
conditions and highlights potential situations that would induce
flooding or exacerbate drought.

In summary, the 2019 Spring Flood Potential is Above Average.

The following sections describe past and current conditions and
future expectations.


Snow pack...

A warm and wet February made snow pack minimal. Recent snow showers
have placed a couple of inches of snow at the higher elevations.


Precipitation...

It was the wettest February on record for much of the area, which
contributed to this being one of our wettest winters overall.

February rainfall was six to nine inches above normal for many
locations. Put another way, February precipitation was 200 percent
to 300 percent of normal.

Overall winter precipitation from December through February ranged
between 150 percent and 250 percent of normal. Winter precipitation
was ten to twelve inches above normal in many places.


Temperatures...

December temperatures averaged 2 to 3 degrees above normal. January
was only a degree above normal. February brought a few days of
record warmth, and the month as a whole averaged 5 to 6 degrees
above normal. On the whole, the winter averaged 3 to 4 degrees above
normal.


Drought...

None.


Soil Moisture...

The record February rainfall has caused soil moisture conditions to
be well above normal. Areas of standing water are still apparent.


Streamflows...

Over the last two weeks, significant rainfall has occurred over the
Tennessee Valley with 4 to 8 inches of rain falling over the area.
Soil moisture and streamflows remain well above normal. Fortunately,
area streams have receded from the previous rains, and no flooding
is occurring at this time. However, rainfall over the next seven
days could cause some minor flooding over the basin.

Streamflows as a percent of daily normal are given for river points
in or immediately upstream from our hydrologic service area:

River...                        Location...    3/6/19
N Fork Holston River           Saltville VA     229%
Clinch River                   Cleveland VA     200%
Clinch River                    Tazewell TN     260%
Powell River                      Arthur TN     295%
Emory River                      Oakdale TN     143%
Pigeon River                       Hepco NC     182%
French Broad River             Asheville NC     200%


Tennessee River Basin Reservoir Levels...

Due to the wet winter and the excessively wet February, reservoir
levels are near summertime pools, and dam releases have been
elevated in order to move the water through the system. Not
surprisingly, the percent of available flood control storage for
reservoirs in the Tennessee Basin above Chattanooga is down to 42
percent.


Meteorological Outlook...

The Week Two Outlook for days 8 to 14 shows an expectation of near
normal temperatures...and above normal precipitation.

The Climate Outlook for the month of March shows no discernible
trends on the temperature forecast, meaning there are equal chances
for below...near...or above normal temperatures. But there is an
elevated expectation for above normal precipitation.

The longer term Climate Outlook for the 3 month period of March
through May indicates slightly elevated expectations for above
normal temperatures and precipitation.


The 2019 Spring Flood Outlook...

Based on all of the above considerations...an ABOVE AVERAGE flood
potential is expected for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...
and extreme Southwest North Carolina basins.


Acknowledgments...

This outlook was created with input from the Lower Mississippi River
Forecast Center, the United States Geological Survey, the Tennessee
Valley Authority, state and county officials, and various
cooperative weather spotters. For more information, see the
following websites:

www.weather.gov/morristown
www.weather.gov/lmrfc
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis
www.tva.gov
www.tennessee.gov/environment
www.deq.virginia.gov
www.ncwater.org
drought.unl.edu
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


You may also contact...

For general weather information or forecasts, call 423-586-3771.

For information related to this outlook, contact...

Glenn Carrin, Service Hydrologist, at 423-586-3771
George Mathews, Meteorologist in Charge,
 at 423-586-1964 Media only, please

or write Glenn.Carrin@noaa.gov and George.Mathews@noaa.gov

$$


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