Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2020

...EARLY SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2020 FOR THE UPPER
MISISSIPPI, MINNESOTA, AND CHIPPEWA (WI) RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

Due to very high soil moisture conditions, coupled with much higher
than normal streamflow for this time of year...the initial spring
flood potential outlook is HIGH for 2020. Much will be determined by
the temperature and precipitation patterns in February, March, and
April.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 01/27/2020 - 04/26/2020

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  91   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  92   32   73   18    7    9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 : >95   38   94   26   71   15
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :  56   10   11   <5    6   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  38   11    9    7   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  70   19   11    8   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  92   25   56   13   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 : >95   38   43    9   19    8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  56   20   15    5   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  56   14   22    8   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  80   21   18   11    7    9
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :  55   14   36   12   21   11
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  70   16   32   11   18    9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  94   19   69   11   41   <5
ANOKA               12.0   14.0   17.0 :  65   11   10   <5   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  46    8   37    7   31    6
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  87   18   81   15   61   11
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  93   27   82   14   67   11
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  88   18   79   12   44    9
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  85   13   73   11   60    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  88   18   77   12   55   10
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  32   13    7   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  43   14   21    6   16   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  81   39   34   10   19   <5


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 01/27/2020 - 04/26/2020
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         5.4    6.2    7.1    7.9    8.9   10.2   12.2
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM              10.5   11.3   12.9   13.9   14.9   15.8   18.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO           15.9   16.4   17.4   18.4   19.7   22.4   24.8
GRANITE FALLS       885.8  886.4  887.6  888.9  890.4  893.6  897.3
MANKATO              15.8   17.6   19.4   21.1   22.9   24.8   28.1
HENDERSON           728.9  730.3  731.7  733.4  734.8  736.1  738.7
JORDAN               23.8   25.1   26.5   28.2   29.5   30.6   33.4
SAVAGE              703.1  705.1  707.6  709.7  711.3  713.6  715.7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          5.8    6.3    6.6    7.1    7.5    8.4    9.1
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.8    5.2    5.8    6.1    6.7    7.4    8.4
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 9.2   10.1   11.4   12.6   14.5   15.7   18.0
DELANO               13.7   14.5   15.7   16.6   18.2   19.3   20.6
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              7.7    8.4    9.6   10.9   13.0   15.4   16.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              8.8    9.2    9.9   10.6   11.6   13.2   15.0
ANOKA                10.8   11.2   11.8   12.3   12.9   13.9   14.6
MINNEAPOLIS          12.4   12.8   14.3   15.7   17.2   20.2   22.0
ST PAUL              11.7   13.1   15.5   18.2   20.2   23.0   25.6
HASTINGS L/D#2       14.8   15.7   17.3   19.0   20.3   22.0   23.7
RED WING L/D#3      679.6  680.2  681.6  682.8  684.3  686.2  688.2
RED WING             12.1   12.8   14.5   16.8   18.2   19.9   21.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           85.8   86.4   88.1   89.2   90.4   93.0   97.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            7.1    7.3    7.8    8.9   11.8   13.4   14.6
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          767.4  767.5  770.0  772.1  775.6  780.2  781.6
DURAND               11.0   11.7   13.6   14.8   16.0   17.8   18.6

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 01/27/2020 - 04/26/2020
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               3.9    3.8    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.1    3.1
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            6.5    6.5    6.3    6.1    5.9    5.3    5.1
GRANITE FALLS       881.3  881.3  881.3  881.2  881.1  880.9  880.8
MANKATO               4.6    4.6    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.0    3.9
HENDERSON           716.3  716.3  716.1  715.7  715.4  715.2  715.0
JORDAN                7.8    7.7    7.6    7.2    7.0    6.7    6.7
SAVAGE              687.7  687.7  687.7  687.6  687.5  687.5  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
DELANO                7.2    7.2    7.1    6.9    6.7    6.6    6.6
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.4    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.6    4.6    4.6
ANOKA                 4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
MINNEAPOLIS           5.3    5.3    5.2    5.1    4.8    4.7    4.7
ST PAUL               3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4
HASTINGS L/D#2        5.4    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.9
RED WING L/D#3      668.7  668.7  668.6  668.4  668.3  668.2  668.1
RED WING              3.2    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           75.4   75.4   75.4   75.4   75.3   75.3   75.3
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            1.1    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.8    0.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          759.1  759.1  759.0  759.0  759.0  759.0  758.9
DURAND                2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5

Follow the latest outlooks and river forecasts at water.weather.gov .
Additional outlooks will be issued every two weeks, on Feb 13, Feb
27, and Mar 12, 2020.

The National Weather Service urges anyone who could be affected by
flooding this spring to PREPARE NOW, and stay tuned to the lastest
forecasts and warnings.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THEY INCLUDE CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.


$$


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