Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
715 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...The Overall Flood Risk is Higher than Average for Middle
Tennessee...

Due to recent rainfall that has left soil conditions extremely moist
and the current levels of area rivers, streams, and lakes across
Middle Tennessee, the risk of flooding is higher than normal.
February 2019 ended as the wettest February on record, and the 7th
overall wettest month on record. This has created conditions where
any heavy rain event will likely produce flooding, especially in the
short-term.

SOIL MOISTURE

Soil moisture across Middle Tennessee is very high for this time of
year, and is about 20% wetter than this time last year. The normal
soil moisture content typically falls in the 2 to 3 inch range
statewide, but this year is averaging above 3 inches for much of the
southeastern United States.

PAST CLIMATE

This past winter was warmer and wetter than normal:

                             Temperatures
                December        January        February
Nashville     +4.6 degrees    +2.3 degrees   +7.2 degrees
Clarksville   +4.1 degrees    +1.7 degrees   +5.8 degrees
Crossville    +2.4 degrees    +0.6 degrees   +5.8 degrees


                             Precipitation
                December        January        February
Nashville     +1.17 inches    +0.79 inches   +9.53 inches
Clarksville   +1.70 inches    -0.47 inches   +6.60 inches
Crossville    +3.56 inches    +0.67 inches   +8.39 inches

RECENT & ONGOING FLOODING

Record breaking rainfall for February was observed at many locations
across Middle Tennessee, with most of the area receiving 10 to 15
inches of rainfall. This led to widespread Minor flooding on area
rivers and streams, with Moderate to Major flooding occurring on
portions of the Duck River and Tennessee River. At the time of this
outlook, river levels are still running at or above normal. Along
the larger rivers like the Cumberland River and Tennessee River,
water levels will remain high through the spring as the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers and the Tennessee Valley Authority route water
from their various storage projects downstream. The pool levels
behind these flood control projects were well above their typical
levels for this time of year.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a higher than average
chance that for the month of March, Middle Tennessee will receive
above normal rainfall with equal chances of above, normal, or below
average temperatures. The outlook for the spring months of March,
April, and May calls for a greater probability of warmer than
average temperatures and higher than average precipitation.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK

Due to the recent rainfall that caused widespread flooding, along
with the higher than average flows on area streams and rivers, the
flood risk for Middle Tennessee is very high in the short-term (the
month of March). For the rest of the spring (April and May), the
flood risk is higher than average due to these antecedant
conditions, and the expectation that this spring will be slightly
warmer and wetter than normal.

$$

05



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