Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1023 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for western/central Oklahoma and
western north Texas...

...Flood risk is average for western/central Oklahoma and near
average for western north Texas...

The potential for flood conditions this spring is normal for
western/central Oklahoma and near normal for western north Texas.
Flooding in the region usually occurs in response to specific
precipitation events. There are currently no indications of extreme
hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential for the area.

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are above normal across
the most of central, southern, and western Oklahoma, but are much
drier across the far-western part of the state. Precipitation totals
for the last 90 days in western northern Texas along the Red River
east of Wichita Falls have been significantly above normal while
areas near Quanah, Crowell, Knox City, and Vernon have been drier
than normal. A good portion of the region had received 125 to 200
percent-of-average precipitation during the past 90 days while the
drier areas in western Oklahoma and western north Texas received 25
to 75 percent of the normal precipitation.

Soil moisture conditons across most of Oklahoma are above normal,
but in southwestern Oklahoma the soil moisture conditions are near
normal. Current soil moisture conditions are generally above normal
across much of western north Texas.

Streamflows are generally near to above normal across Oklahoma and
western north Texas. However, streamflows at a few sites in parts of
west central Oklahoma and western north Texas are running below
seasonal normals.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in most of Oklahoma and
western north Texas are at or slightly above the tops of their
conservation pools, and currently have near 100 percent of available
flood storage. Only Altus-Lugert Lake in southwestern Oklahoma was
well below the top of its conservation pool.

The February 21, 2019 Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Spring Outlook
(March-April-May) indicates there are equal chances (33.3 percent)
for above, near, or below normal temperatures across all of
western/central Oklahoma and western north Texas. This outlook also
indicates increased chances (33-40 percent) of above median
precipitation for the region.

According to the March 5, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry
to moderate drought conditions are prevalent across the far western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid February 21-May 31, 2019 indicates an improvement in drought
conditions in western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

For the latest river stage information, forecasts, and warnings,
please visit our website at www.weather.gov/norman. River stage and
forecast data can be obtained by selecting the Rivers and Lakes link.

$$


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