Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 071951
ESFPHI
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
251 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 5

This is the fifth in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of
river flooding (not flash flooding) across the middle/lower
Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins.
These statements will provide information on flood threat
conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover
and its water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow,
future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid between March 7 to 21, 2019.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is slightly above normal through the
two week period.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Above normal. Between 3.5 and 5.5 inches
of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the
entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Snow covers the ground across southeast Pennsylvania
and the northern half of New Jersey. Current snow depths are up to
nine inches while snow water equivalent is up to about one inch.
This is fairly close to normal for this time of year. Depth and
basin- average water equivalent estimates can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Below normal to normal. Very little ice is being
observed on area streams and rivers which is fairly common for
most locations this time of year.

STREAMFLOW - Normal to above normal. Real time water data is
available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by
visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Much above normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to much above above normal. Additonal information can be
found at http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running normal to above normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure will continue to slowly
build into the region from the west through this afternoon as a
weak wave of low pressure passes north of our area. High pressure
will move offshore early Friday then weak low pressure will pass
across the Mid-Atlantic later on Friday. In general, light
precipitation is expected with the low. High pressure will then build
from the north into Saturday. Much stronger low pressure is
forecast to track across the Great Lakes Sunday with a warm front
lifting north into our area Sunday morning. This event will likely
be more significant compared to the Friday event. At this time,
it appears that up to 1.00 inch of rain will fall. Some snowmelt
can also be expected. A cold front will follow in the wake of this
system late Sunday and again late Monday before high pressure
returns through the middle of next week. The overall 8 to 14 day
outlook calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall flood potential is slightly above normal for the two
week period.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

The next regularly-scheduled Flood Outlook will be issued on
March 21st, 2019.

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 21, 2019:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...Slightly above normal
FLOODING...None.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Above normal
SNOW COVER...Near normal
RIVER ICE...Below normal to normal
STREAMFLOW...Normal to above normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Above normal to much above normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to much above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Normal to above normal

$$

Kruzdlo


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