Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 041826
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
226 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 7

This is the seventh, and last, in a series of annual Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the
likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) across the
middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan
River basins. These statements will provide information on flood
threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture,
snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions,
streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid between April 4-18, 2019.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is normal through the two week
period.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Below normal to normal. Between 2.0 and
4.0 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days
across the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal. No snow is being observed across the HSA.
Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal. No river ice is being observed on area rivers.

STREAMFLOW - Variable, but mainly normal. Real time water data is
available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by
visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Variable, normal to much above normal. Soil
moisture monitoring charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity
Index) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center can be found at the
following websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to much above above normal. Additonal information can be
found at http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running normal to above normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure will progress through the
Northeast today and tonight. A weak system will move through the
eastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, followed by another surface
high building into the area for the weekend. A stronger storm
system will likely affect the region early next week. The overall
8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall flood potential is normal for the two week period.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

This is the last Flood Outlook of the season.

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 18, 2019:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...Normal
FLOODING...None
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Below normal to normal
SNOW COVER...Normal
RIVER ICE...Normal
STREAMFLOW...Mainly normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Variable, normal to much above normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to much above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Normal to above normal

$$

Kruzdlo


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