512
FZAK80 PAFC 172259
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
300 PM AKDT Friday 17 May 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 22 May 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...A system will move west to east across the Bering Sea
through Saturday, moving into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. A new,
stronger low enters the southern Bering Sea on Monday and moves
over Saint Lawrence Island on Wednesday.

The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to Cape Mendenhall to
near St. Matthew Island to 61 35N 178 43W and continues in Russian
waters. The ice edge is marginal ice.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Quinhagak to Cape Mendenhall to near St. Matthew Island to 230
nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice
edge is marginal ice.


-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will be generally light, turning more
northeasterly through the period. Ice will move generally with tides
and currents.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Generally light northerly winds will persist.
Expect ice to move with tides and currents with the polynya along
the Wales to Espenberg coastline to partially close.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-
PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-
PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Winds will change to lighter northerly for most of the
next five days. Expect much of the southern third of the Bering Sea
ice pack to turn to marginal ice with very little pack ice left. The
higher concentration pack north of Saint Lawrence Island will move
back toward the island. The ice edge itself will remain in
relatively the same spot.

Shorefast ice from the Kuskokwim Delta remains intact but the amount
of open water around it means it will not last much longer. The
Yukon Delta has not shown signs of much degradation as of yet, but
is expected to be later to go than last year which was May 29th.
Likely will be into June before it goes out.

&&
Lawson