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AGPN40 KWNM 191538

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
838 AM PDT Sun May 19 2019

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Low pressure was over the inner waters of the N California
offshore waters and will move SE and inland later this afternoon.
Strongest winds appear to be near 30 kt in the SW quadrant of the
low. Have not seen any recent satellite data to confirm strength
of winds, but buoy 46059 over the outer waters of the northern CA
was recently showing wind gusts to 33 kt with seas to about 17
ft. Another weaker low pressure was over the outer OR waters and
dissipates over this area later this morning into the afternoon.
Another fairly strong low pressure now well W of the WA waters
will weaken while approaching the outer WA/OR waters Mon
afternoon and then move SE over the waters Mon night and Tue, and
then move near the OR and northern CA Tue and Tue night while
becoming much weaker. Model guidance has not changes much from
earlier guidance with regards to the track and intensity of the
low pressure. For the update will make minor adjustments for now
with adjustment to low strength of gale force winds for Wed
along the inner waters of CA as high pressure builds in from the
W otherwise few changes.


The latest model guidance indicates that low pressure over the
western pz5 waters will move east and southeast tonight and
Sunday. Gale force winds on the southwest side of the low will
make it into the western part of the pz6 waters tonight. Another
low will then move into the pz5 waters by Monday night with gale
conditions again expected on the southwest side of the low over
the southwestern pz5 and northwestern pz6 waters. This low will
then move inland by Tuesday. Strong high pressure will then build
west of the offshore waters Tuesday into Thursday. By Wednesday
the northerly pressure gradient should be strong enough to
produce gale conditions west of Point Arena. These gales will
then continue into Thursday.

Farther north, northwest winds will come close to gale force
over the northeastern portions of the Washington offshore waters
by Wednesday, but for now will keep the strongest winds over the
pz5 waters at 30 knots and see what the later model guidance
shows. The latest runs of the gfs and ecmwf look to be in
reasonably good agreement across the eastern Pacific through
Friday. For wind grids will use the gfs winds throughout with
some edits. Only change to warnings will be to add gales over the
northeastern pz6 waters Wednesday into Thursday.

For wave height grids will also use the wavewatch throughout the
forecast period.

low pressure approaching the next several days, please continue
to monitor the coastal NWS offices for storm surge information.
The latest surge guidance appears reasonable through Tuesday with
the GFS winds and surge models appearing reasonable.


.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Thursday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night into Thursday.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.


.Forecaster Rowland/Nolt. Ocean Prediction Center. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.