Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 221948
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Valid 00Z Thu May 23 2019 - 00Z Sat May 25 2019

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding likely across the
Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley this evening...

...Cool temperatures remain across the Southwest as heat builds
into the Southeast to end the week...

An active weather pattern continues across much of the U.S. to end
the week. The current low pressure system over the Upper Midwest
Wednesday afternoon is forecast to lift northward towards Canada
by Thursday, with an associated cold front extending back into the
Central Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to form along this
boundary later this afternoon, with a few storms likely turning
severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for
severe thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
into portions of southwestern Missouri. These areas have also seen
an abundant amount of rain over the last few days. Therefore,
there is also a moderate risk for flash flooding across this
region.

By Thursday, the low pressure system will swing southeastward from
Canada and across the Northeast Thursday night. This will bring
scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and New
England. A few thunderstorms could turn severe across Pennsylvania
and northern Maryland. The chance of strong thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall will increase once again across the waterlogged
Central Plains Thursday and Friday. The reason for yet another
round of heavy rain will be a low pressure system that is forecast
to emerge from the Central Rockies on Friday. Thunderstorms will
form along the quasi-stationary front set up across the Central
Plains and ahead of the dry-line situated in west Texas.

The Southwest will remain cool and dreary through Friday with
widespread light to moderate precipitation expected to continue.
The Sierra Nevada and the higher elevations of the central to
northern Rockies will likely have additional accumulating snow.
High temperatures will remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

The opposite weather pattern will be the case across the eastern
half of the nation.  An upper-level ridge and a strong surface
high will keep anomalous heat centered over the Southeast states
over the next couple of days and beyond.  Widespread highs in the
90s are expected for much of the Deep South and extending eastward
to the Carolinas, with heat indices approaching the triple digits
in a few spots. After a couple days of pleasant temperatures
across the Mid-Atlantic region midweek, a return to more
summer-like conditions is expected for the end of the week.


Snell


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$




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