436
FXUS01 KWBC 151931
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 16 2025 - 00Z Fri Jul 18 2025

  ...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat continues for portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians into mid-week...

...Heavy downpours and possible flash flooding expected with a
tropical disturbance moving across Florida into the northern
Gulf...

...Potent summer storm system to bring flash flooding and severe
weather to the Midwest and northern/central Plains through
midweek...

...Heat threat building across much of the eastern U.S. through at
least mid-week...

A moisture-rich summer airmass will remain in place across much of
the eastern and central U.S. through midweek, supporting scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
downpours and flash flooding. A slow-moving and weakening front
stretching from the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley will act as
a key focus, with abundant moisture along and south of the
boundary fueling rounds of heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms
developing this afternoon are likely to continue into the evening
hours before gradually diminishing overnight. The greatest
concentration of activity today is expected from the central and
southern Appalachians through the southern Delmarva Peninsula. On
Wednesday, this axis will lift farther north, with the heaviest
rainfall expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic.

Across Florida and the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center
continues to monitor a tropical disturbance drifting westward
across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even if the
system does not undergo further development, deep tropical
moisture and associated thunderstorm activity will bring the
potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across
portions of Florida and the eastern to central Gulf Coast through
the period.

Farther west, a well-defined cold front will push east from the
Upper Midwest into the Northeast while sagging south into the
northern and central Plains through midweek. This boundary will
serve as a focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may become strong to severe and produce heavy
rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of
central Nebraska with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe
weather, where scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail are
likely later this afternoon into the evening. Elsewhere along and
ahead of the front, a broader area from the Upper Midwest to the
northern Great Basin remains at risk for scattered strong to
severe storms into the evening hours.

By Wednesday, the severe threat shifts farther south along the
front, with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected
during the afternoon and evening from portions of the central High
Plains eastward into the Great Lakes. Damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary hazard, with large hail also a concern,
particularly across parts of the central High Plains.

Ahead of the front, the persistent humid airmass will lead to
increasingly uncomfortable conditions. Daytime highs are forecast
to climb into the 90s as far north as northern New England, while
overnight lows will offer limited relief. Major HeatRisk (Level 3
of 4) will expand across portions of the eastern U.S., including
the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleyssignaling
dangerous heat impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations
without access to cooling or adequate hydration.

In sharp contrast, a much cooler airmass will surge in behind the
front. Well-below normal temperatures are expected across the
northern and central Plains and the Upper Midwest, with daytime
highs running 20 to 30 degrees below average over the northern
High Plains on Wednesday.

West of the Rockies, temperatures will remain above normal, with
highs reaching near 100 degrees across parts of the Pacific
Northwest.

Across the Southwest, a shift toward cooler, below-normal
temperatures is expected beginning Tuesday, as increasing
monsoonal moisture brings greater cloud cover and a daily chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$