-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
304
FXUS61 KBGM 110630
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
230 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and
Saturday. A low pressure system will bring more widespread
showers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain quite warm
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM Update...

Upper level trough swings through this afternoon and evening with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Models forecast CAPE
values up to 1,500 J/Kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 30 knots or less.
Model sounding show much higher shear in the 0-8km layer extending
through the hail growth zone. Although mid level lapse rates are
lacking todays parameters could support isolated strong to severe
storms. That is if storms are able to tap into the instability
aloft. Main threat today will include large hail along with strong
gusts. Most of the area remains in a Marginal risk, with the
exclusion of the Western Catskills region NY, and The Wyoming and
Pocono Mountain region of PA where instability values are lower.
Highs range in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Showers are
expected to linger into the evening hours, gradually diminishing as
the sun sets and drier air filters in. Quiet and drier conditions
are expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Brief upper level ridge builds in Friday along with surface
high pressure. This will keep our area mostly dry Friday
morning, but with warm and muggy conditions pop up afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Instability
parameters are similar to today, CAPE values may reach 1,200
J/Kg, but 0-6 km shear is weak. Model soundings are also very
dry, therefore confidence is low for strong storms, but can`t
rule out an isolated few. There is also less capping on soundings
tomorrow, therefore if storms overcome dry air strong to severe
storms may be possible; SPC has our region included in a
marginal risk. CAMs are mostly dry with showers taking off east
of our region over the Western Catskills where orographic lift
may help. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow with
highs in the low to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
230 AM Update...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger around
Saturday night, especially during the evening as convection that
developed earlier in the day gradually diminishes. Warm and
steamy Saturday night with lows in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

As an upper ridge moves off to the east Sunday, with the center
of the ridge axis located over New England, an upper level
trough and surface cold front will begin to approach from the
west. This will lead to a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Plenty of instability will be in place with temperatures Sunday
ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points
generally in the lower 70s, and MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg, but
0-6km bulk shear values are expected to be pretty low on the
order of 10-20 knots. PWATs however are expected to be high
Sunday into Sunday night anywhere from 1.50 to around 2.00
inches, so there is more of a concern for locally heavy rainfall
from slower- moving storms. Nearly all of the CWA is
highlighted by WPC under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
from 12z Sunday through 12z Monday. Depending on how quickly
clouds and convection build Sunday, there is the potential of
heat advisories being needed as apparent temperatures can reach
the mid and upper 90s for a few hours in the valley areas of CNY
during the early to mid afternoon. Lows Sunday night will be in
the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
230 AM Update...

There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly the front
pushes east Monday with a strong Bermuda high seeming to slow
down its progression and that of the lagging upper level trough
that will be overhead. This will lead to additional showers and
storms around during the day, again some of which can be slower-
moving with heavy rainfall. It won`t be quite as warm with
Monday a west to northwest flow taking shape with highs from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look to rebound quickly
though Tuesday through Thursday with a ridge building in aloft
and the Bermuda high drifting westward reestablishing the very
moist south-southwesterly flow. Most operational and ensemble
guidance has high pressure in control at the surface Tuesdsay
and Wednesday with largely dry conditions each day. Although
there is some timing differences with the next boundary
approaching, it will lead to the chance of showers and storms
returning Thursday. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday
are expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s and heat
headlines may be needed midweek.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog has developed at ELM. While visibilities will bounce
around, they should settle into LIFR. IFR to LIFR visibilities
due to fog will be possible at BGM and ITH early this morning.
AVP and RME may also see fog but restrictions should be above
IFR. SYR will be the only terminal where fog is not expected.
Other than low visibilities, conditions will be mainly VFR for
this TAF period.

PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Prob30 groups were maintained at AVP and BGM, though
slight adjustments were made to the timing. Prob30 groups were
added to ELM and ITH as model guidance is showing some activity
around those terminals as well. Brief restrictions will be
possible if a shower/storm passes right over a terminal.

As skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight, fog will
once again be possible. Fog was introduced to ELM, following
similar timing to this morning with it developing around 03z.

Winds will be light and variable throughout this TAF period,
though could be gusty under showers/storms.

Outlook...

Friday night into Saturday...Mainly VFR with patchy fog again
Sat morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms from late Saturday
morning through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday... VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds in.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL