-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
604
FXUS61 KBGM 061804
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping
away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into
the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional
systems with some showers move through for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
925 AM Update...

A few showers are moving into the Catskills and NEPA. Showers
are expected off and on across NEPA and the Catskills through
the day. Temperatures were bumped up a degree or two across
northern portions of the CWA where clearing is expected to occur
later this morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

630 am update...

Bumped up hourly temperatures for the immediate time then
adjusted the daytime temperatures slightly down. Increased
clouds for mostly NEPA.

320 am update...

A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida
County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to increase to scattered early this morning across CNY then to
isolated late morning and afternoon. Forcing is weak with
little instability and wind shear. Low level moisture is good
with cloudy skies. The front will exit to the southeast out of
NEPA and the western Catskills early this evening. Rainfall
amounts will be light and spotty. Behind the front skies will
clear this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon.

Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest.
It will be a good radiational cooling night with clear skies
and light to calm winds. Patchy valley fog is possible late.
Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming
Valley of NEPA.

The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday. Sunny
skies give way to some clouds late coming in from the southwest.
Maybe a shower gets into Luzerne County early in the evening.
Winds will be light. High temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will push through the area Wednesday morning. The
best lift and moisture should translate north and east of our
region. However, enough lift and moisture near the boundary look
to be present for a few showers and thunderstorms. The
environment looks highly sheared with some instability as well.
A fairly impressive wedge of mid-level dry air and steep low
level lapse rates could factor in with wind and hail potential.
So while coverage looks lackluster what develops could become
strong to perhaps severe. Wednesday should be the warmest day
well into the 70`s. After the cold frontal passage Wednesday
enough of a colder airmass should advect in for lows to fall to
around 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A very active pattern continues with another low pressure system
moving through with a broad trough in place. Widespread rain
looks to develop ahead of a warm front during the day Thursday
than taper off to showers as the main low pressure system moves
through Friday. Yet another system with some showers then
follows for the weekend. Cooler with highs in the 50`s and 60`s
and lows in the 40`s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
645 AM Update...

Widespread MVFR are across the area for most sites still. Some
IFR at some sites this morning. Cigs and vsbys improve today to
be VFR. VFR tonight. No valley fog expected at this time. A cold
front is making its way southeast through CNY now and AVP this
afternoon. IFR along the front and at BGM/AVP ahead of it.

BGM will remain IFR until around 18z, then VFR by 20z. Through
14z cigs and possibly vsbys will be around airport minimums.

AVP has fallen to IFR cigs. IFR until 18z then VFR at 22z.

SYR/RME will remain MVFR until 16z then lift to VFR.

ITH should be IFR from 12 to 15z then lift to VFR at 17z. ELM
is MVFR and may get IFR 12 to 14z before lifting to VFR at 17z.

Light winds under 7 kts early this morning, turning west
and northwest at 4 to 8 kts this morning and afternoon. Tonight
winds light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely
with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC