Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FGUS71 KBGM 012012

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018


This is the third in a series of regularly scheduled hydrologic
outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring season. This outlook
is designed to provide a generalized assessment of river flood
potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...February 1st
through February 15th.


.The risk of widespread river flooding for the next two weeks is below
average, including the possibility for ice jam flooding. Known,
and/or developing, river ice cover should still be monitored
closely for changes.


.PRECIPITATION: Below average. The January precipitation was about average,
but trended significantly below average during the last two weeks of
the month. Since the middle of January, precipitation ranged from only
about 25 to 70 percent of normal across the basins.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT: Below average. The current snow
depth, as of February 1st, was generally less than 2 inches
across much of the region, with only trace amounts in the Upper
Delaware and northeast Pennsylvania. Localized snow depths of 3
to 8 inches existed north of the Mohawk Valley in Oneida county.
These amounts were several inches below normal for early February.
Snow water equivalent was generally only a few tenths of an inch,
but as much as 1 to 3 inches along the southern Tug Hill plateau.

.RIVER ICE COVER: Below average. River channels have generally
been flushed of ice after the two mild periods in late January,
however, stationary ice formations remain on the Susquehanna river
between Owego and Vestal, and on Fish Creek near Sylvan Beach.
Elsewhere, most of the main river channels were reported to be
flowing with at least 80 percent open channels. Smaller streams
may have more ice cover. Taking this information into account,
river ice cover is determined to be below average for mid-Winter.

.STREAMFLOW: Normal to above normal. Streamflow, averaged over
the past 28 days, was generally normal to above normal at a
majority of the stream gauge locations when compared to the long
term history of each gauge.

.SOILS AND GROUNDWATER: Per the Palmer Drought and the Crop
Moisture index, the first several inches of topsoil was generally
wet across the Finger Lakes and Chemung basins, while the
remainder of the region had about average wetness. NY State
Mesonet locations indicated the 2cm to 10cm soil temperatures
ranged from about 32-35 degrees. Groundwater conditions tended to
be normal at most monitoring wells in NY, but drier than usual
across NEPA.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...Normal. NYC Reservoirs were below the
long term median pool height, but still considered in a normal range
for the time of year. The Finger Lakes levels were about average.
Lake Wallenpaupack in NEPA was the only major lake reporting a
level above the February average.


.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for
colder than normal temperatures, with a trend from above average
precipitation during the first week, to below average in week two.
Medium range weather models were suggesting a couple targets of
opportunity for moderate precipitation this period, mainly within
the first seven to ten days of the month. A predominant snow event
looks possible between February 4-5, while a somewhat milder
storm is indicated between February 7-8. This second event could
bring a better chance for rain across the Susquehanna Upper Main
Stem and the Upper Delaware basins, with snow and mixed
precipitation expected over the northern basins. A few more minor
snow, or lake effect snow, events look possible after the 10th.

ensemble of river forecast systems indicates a below normal chance
for natural flow river flooding during the next two weeks. A
climatological analysis of flooding, using current hydrologic
conditions compared to historical flows, also suggests the chance
for river flooding during the two week period is below average.


This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.

It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur
from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a period
of time, is the most important factor in determining the severity
of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are not included in this outlook.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this
office in two weeks, on February 15th, 2018. If conditions change
in the interim: Flood Watches, Warnings or Advisories will be
issued as necessary.



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