Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 232332
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
732 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system maintains cooler temperatures today. High
pressure builds in from the north Sunday into Monday bringing drier
weather. Another front arrives from the west late Tuesday and
increases rain chances. Unsettled pattern for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Saturday: Surface high pressure and an upper ridge move
into the area tonight behind a departing frontal zone and upper
trough. Gusty northerly winds have developed bringing drier
continental into the region overnight and through the end of the
period. Isolated lingering showers along the front have moved south
with the front. The gusty winds will continue into the evening, with
some stronger gusts possible across the mountains. Gusty Gap Winds
are likely this evening downwind of the mountains. Winds should
taper off overnight outside of the mountains but some gusty winds
will continue across the mountains. The other concern for area will
be near or just at freezing temperatures for the NC foothills and
Piedmont. Guidance from the NAM and NBM keep temps right at or just
above freezing for a brief period before daybreak Sunday. With clear
skies expected overnight, areas of patchy frost could occur IF winds
can calm enough, especially over the NC foothills and Upper Savannah
River Valley. Confidence still remains low for widespread frost
given the light but not calm wind speeds. However, a light freeze is
possible in the normally colder sheltered areas of the NC foothills
and Piedmont.

After daybreak Sunday, surface high pressure and the upper ridge
continue to build in, keeping the area clear and dry. Fire weather
concerns for Sunday afternoon will be low RH values with the much of
the CWA falling to around 25 percent. Mixing won`t be especially
deep, however the atmosphere where mixing takes place will be very
dry. The overall flow will be easterly to southeasterly, limiting
downslope drying to portions of the mountains that are downwind to
those wind directions. Wind speeds will be around 10 kts, but gusty
winds develop during the morning until a low level jet mixes out for
the afternoon. Temperatures will be near climo across the mountains
and near to 5 degrees below climo elsewhere, making for a pleasant
spring day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...Surface high pressure will build down the
east side of the Appalachians Sunday night while a deep low moves
through the Plains states. Cooler air will move into region from the
northeast with lows in the NC Piedmont and eastern Piedmont of SC
dropping into the middle 30s, with less cool lows expected in NE
Georgia and the western Piedmont of SC. This period will have to be
watched closely for frost in spots if clouds hold off and winds drop
off late. Mountain areas should drop below freezing but would
require no headlines at the moment.

The surface high will slowly move off to the east on Monday as the
Plains system moves northeast. This should lead to a tranquil day
despite some wind gusts and cloudiness. The low will move well
northwest of the region pushing a weakening cold front toward the
forecast area on Tuesday. An area of showers ahead of the front will
impact the area late Monday night in the mountains and the entire
forecast area on Tuesday, but no hazardous weather is expected due
to limited dynamics and instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...There is model disagreement on the Wednesday
to Thursday timeframe of next week. Some models move the front and
rainfall east of the area on Wednesday and dry conditions out for
Thursday. A few other models develop an area of low pressure along
the coast and pull some rain back into the forecast area on
Thursday. Based on the uncertainty, we will carry the chance of rain
into Thursday with the potential for large changes to this period in
later forecasts.

Conditions look to dry out going into Friday and Saturday with
warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR this TAF period, although a brief
MVFR cig is possible at KAVL early this evening. Skies will continue
to clear through the evening, remaining clear until Sunday afternoon
when cirrus begins returning from the west. Gusty N wind continues
into the evening then diminishes around 04Z for all but KAVL where
gusts continue to around 08Z. Wind turns NE outside of the mountains
Sunday morning with low end gusts developing as mixing takes place
taping a low level NE jet. The winds turn ENE and taper off through
the afternoon. KAVL will see a N wind during the morning turn SE for
the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions continue into Monday.
Rain chances and possible restrictions return Tuesday into Wednesday
as a cold front moves in from the west. The front could slow keeping
rain and restrictions on Thursday, but this is uncertain.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...RWH


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